South Africa’s Internet traffic is set to grow 10,6-fold between 2011 and 2016 – a compound annual growth rate of 60% – while the Internet will be four times larger in 2016 than it is today.
These are among the predictions from Cisco’s annual Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, which seeks to analyse Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide.
The Forecast projects the following growth areas for the South African market:
* Internet traffic will grow 10,5-fold from 2011 to 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 60%;
* Internet traffic will reach 425 petabytes per month in 2016, up from 40 petabytes per month in 2011;
* Internet traffic in 2016 will be equivalent to 1-billion DVDs per year, 106-million DVDs per month or 145 715 DVDs per hour;
* Internet video traffic will be 79% of all consumer Internet traffic in 2016, up from 56% in 2011;
* 58-billion minutes of video content will cross the Internet each month in 2016, up from 4-billion in 2011;
* Video exceeded half of South Africa’s consumer Internet traffic by year-end 2011;
* Mobile data traffic will grow 49-fold from 2011 to 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 118%;
* Mobile data traffic in 2016 will be equivalent to 17x the volume of the entire South African Internet in 2005;
* There will be 134-million networked devices in 2016, up from 83-million in 2011;
* There will be 2,6 networked devices per capita in 2016, up from 1,6 per capita in 2011;
* The average broadband speed will grow 2,6-fold from 2011 to 2016, from 2Mbps to 5Mbps;
* The average Internet user will generate 39,6Gb of Internet traffic per month in 2016, up 754% from 4,6Gb per month in 2011, a CAGR of 54%; and
* The average Internet household will generate 128,4Gb of Internet traffic per month in 2016, up 1 231% from 9,6Gb per month in 2011, a CAGR of 68%.
The significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by a number of global factors, including:
* An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity.
* More Internet users: By 2016 there will be 3,4-billion Internet users across the globe – about 45% of the world’s projected population according to United Nations estimates.
* Faster broadband speeds: The average global fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly four-fold from 9Mbps in 2011 to 35Mbps in 2016.
* More video: By 2016, 1,2-million video minutes – the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) – will travel the Internet every second.
* WiFi growth: By 2016 over half of the world’s Internet traffic will come from WiFi connections.
Leon Wright, country lead: systems engineering at Cisco SA, comments: “Times are certainly changing with Cisco projecting that the average Internet user in South Africa will generate 39,6Gb of Internet traffic per month in 2016, up 754% from 4,6Gb per month in 2011. The network is more important today than any time in history, as more and more people rely on it every day to live their lives and run their businesses.”