Global IP (Internet protocol) traffic will increase nearly three-fold over the next four years due to more Internet users and devices, faster broadband speeds and more video viewing.
According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Forecast and Service Adoption for 2013 to 2018 report, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region continues to be the fastest-growing IP traffic region from 2013 to 2018 with five-fold growth and a 38% CAGR. In South Africa, IP traffic is predicted to grow four-fold from 2013 to 2018, which is a compound annual growth rate of 34%.
With the FIFA World Cup 2014 now well underway, tens of-millions of people are viewing games and/or highlights via the Internet. Video streaming and IP broadcast of the World Cup is anticipated to generate 4,3 exabytes of Internet traffic, which is three times the amount of monthly traffic generated by Brazil (this year’s World Cup host country).
In addition, Internet traffic generated by the 60,000 people in a stadium and traveling to games is forecast to surpass the average busy-hour traffic from all 94-million smartphones in Brazil.
To place the World Cup in context, global IP traffic is expected to reach 132 exabytes per month by 2018, which is the equivalent to:
* 8,8-billion screens streaming the FIFA World Cup final game in Ultra-HD/4K at the same time;
* 5,5-billion people binge-watching “Game of Thrones” Season 4 via video-on-demand in HD or 1,5-billion watching in Ultra-HD/4K;
* The season 3 premier of “House of Cards” streaming in Ultra-HD/4K on 24-billion screens at the same time;
* 940-quadrillion text messages; and
* 4,5-trillion YouTube clips.
In South Africa, IP traffic is expected to grow four-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 34%. During the same period, Internet traffic will grow 4,6-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 36%.
IP video traffic will grow 6-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 44%, while Internet video traffic will grow 6-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 44%.
HD will account for just 10,1% of IP Video traffic in 2018, up from 2,8% in 2013. Meanwhile, mobile data traffic will grow 8-fold from 2013 to 2018, a compound annual growth rate of 53%.
South Africa will boast 147,7-million networked devices in 2018, up from 92,4-million in 2013; and there will be 762,885 Internet households (21,7% of all Internet households) generating more than 100Gb per month in 2018, up from 116 242 in 2013.
Fixed/WiFi connectivity accounts for 51% of total IP traffic in 2013, and will be 65% of total IP traffic in 2018.
Globally, the composition of IP traffic will shift dramatically in the coming years. By 2018, the majority of traffic will originate from devices other than personal computers (PCs) for the first time. WiFi traffic will exceed wired traffic for the first time, and high-definition (HD) video will generate more traffic than standard-definition video.
Mobile and portable devices other than PCs will drive the majority of traffic by 2018. In 2013, 33% of IP traffic originated with non-PC devices. However, by 2018, the non-PC share of IP traffic will grow to 57%.
WiFi and mobile-connected devices will generate 76% of Internet traffic by 2018. WiFi will be 61%, and cellular will be 15%. Fixed traffic will be only 24% of total Internet traffic by 2018. In comparison, WiFi was 55%; cellular was 4%; and fixed was 41%.
Global broadband speeds will reach 42 Mbps by 2018, up from 16 Mbps at the end of 2013.
Online video will be the fastest-growing residential internet service growing from 1,2-billion users to 1,9-billion users by 2018.
Desktop and personal videoconferencing will be the fastest-growing business Internet service growing from 37-million users in 2013 to 238-million users by 2018.
The Internet of Everything is also gaining momentum, and there will be nearly as many machine-to-machine (M2M) modules as there are people by 2018. For example, smart cars will have nearly four M2M connections per car.
The growth in video traffic has implications for South African service providers, which must adapt to the increasing number of devices, such as tablets, smartphones and M2M connections, that will need to be authenticated to gain access to fixed/mobile networks with enhanced security and intelligence required.
The evolution of advanced video services, such as HD/ultra HD video, may create new bandwidth and scalability requirements for service providers. Residential, business and mobile consumers continue to have strong demand for advanced video services across all network and device types with quality of service, convenience, and price as key factors for success.
Continued business video adoption, such as HD and web-based video conferencing and business VoD may prompt greater growth in network virtualisation and leveraging the Internet for video transmission with network ramifications for service providers and over-the-top providers.
4G network growth and service adoption may grow faster as mobile users continue to demand similar service and content experiences from their fixed and mobile networks.
IP networks must be intelligent and flexible enough to support the constant introduction of new/updated applications for fixed and mobile networks. Many service providers are actively collaborating with application developers to differentiate their services.
Alpheus Mangale, MD of Cisco South Africa, comments: “Our first Cisco Visual Networking Index nine years ago established the zettabyte as a major milestone for global IP traffic.
“Today, we are firmly in the ‘Zettabyte Era’ and witnessing incredible innovations and shifts in the industry. It’s amazing to see how, even in the four years since we hosted the World Cup on South African soil, there has been a huge growth in Internet and IP traffic, particularly in video, both locally and globally.
“The Internet of Things was the buzzword at the time and soccer fans were able to use an app on their mobile phones to locate their gate, seats, police assistance or medical care at the stadiums. This was ground-breaking technology in 2010.
“We have since entered the Internet of Everything era and the reality of this, together with the increasing demand for network mobility, and the emergence of 4K video are among the key trends highlighted in this year’s forecast that represent significant opportunities for service providers today and in the immediate future.”