Bing Predicts, the forecasting tool of the Microsoft search platform, scored an almost perfect score in its predictions for the World Cup.According to Walter Sun, writing on the Bing Predicts blog, the team set out to forecast which teams had the best chance of winning the championship in Brazil.
“We are pleased to report that for the final elimination rounds we were 100% accurate picking the winner in 15 out of 15 games, finishing the knockout rounds with a perfect bracket.
“We admit, we did pick Brazil to beat the Netherlands in the consolation match for third place, but hey, this stuff is hard,” he adds.
Sun points out that sports are extremely difficult to predict given the complexities and variables involved, with the actions and performances of a handful of individuals often determining who wins, loses or ties.
“For the tournament, our models evaluated the strength of each team through a variety of factors such as previous win/loss/tie record in qualification matches and other international competitions and margin of victory in these contests, adjusted for location since home field advantage is a well-known bias,” he says.
“We also took into account other subtle factors which give one team advantages over another, such as home field (for Brazil) or proximity (for South American teams like Argentina), playing surface (hybrid grass), game-time weather conditions, and other such factors.
“But in the end there is something else at play which computers can’t model which makes us all love sports – the human spirit.”