South African youth can benefit from skills forecasting and scenario planning to better prepare for the future and the world of work.
This is according to Applied Development Research Solutions (ADRS) Global, an economic modelling research company whose Linked Macro-Education Model (LM-EM) is generating medium and long-term forecasts of skills demand and supply in South Africa.
Recent StatsSA data shows that the unemployment rate among youth (those aged 15-24) in South Africa increased to 52.4% in the first quarter of 2018, implying that more than one half of young people in the labour force did not have jobs.
More than four decades after thousands young people resisted the repressive apartheid regime’s ‘Bantu Education’ scheme, important questions remain: what opportunities and future prospects await young people in South Africa? How is it possible to future-proof the youth with sound economic and education policies?
“The LM-EM model is built to inform policy, help labour market participants, especially the youth, and assist human resource planners, as employers of young people,” says Asghar Adelzadeh, ADRS Global chief economic modeller.
The model helps identify growth paths linked to economic and education policy scenarios that can benefit the youth.
It has shown that, with the current mix of policies, the economy will, at best, grow at a moderate average growth rate of 2,75% between 2018 and 2030 adding about 6,2-million jobs to total employment.
By 2030, total employment and the unemployment rate are projected to reach 22,4-million and 19,7% respectively.
Over the next 12 years, the model shows the share of workers with low skills (no matric) is projected to gradually decline from 45,8% currently to 35,2%.
However, the share of workers with high skills (with tertiary education) is expected to increase from 21,1% to 33,2%. Their employment figures will more than double from 3,45-million in 2017 to 7,44-million in 2030.
LM-EM also provides projections of future demand for various occupations across industries. “For example, the demand for managers in the Trade, Catering, and Accommodation sector is projected to increase by about 150 000 over the next 12 years or about 3,1% annually.”
For the youth, LM-EM’s ‘Occupation Search’ facility provides important forward-looking information for 5 000 occupations.
For instance, young people interested in becoming computer programmers can see the demand for computer programmers is expected to grow much faster than average, more than 15% over the next 12 years.
There will be more than 900 job openings annually in this field, and the overall number of programmers is projected to increase by about 8 000, the model shows.
“It is essential to appreciate the skills needs of the country in an interactive system that captures the relations between the economy and the education sector. LM-EM does this. It also shows that the youth can especially benefit through not only increased investment in education but also adoption of policies that directly target higher growth and employment,” adds Adelzadeh.