Most CEOs recognise that AI will be critical to their business, but few enterprises have actually undertaken AI initiatives. A recent Gartner CIO survey found only 4% of respondents had deployed AI in their organisations.
In 2018, cars are commonplace, but it took 250 years for the automobile to develop from an idea to the car-oriented life we lead today. The world had to be moulded around it first.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is developing in a similar vein. The idea emerged more than 60 years ago, but needs time to be woven into the fabric of modern life, according to Jamie Popkin, distringuished vice-president and analyst at Gartner.
“AI has tremendous potential, but such an immature technology also poses severe risks for those investing in it,” he says. “Think about a time frame similar to the automobile to reduce the risks and increase the benefits of AI.”
One pioneer is UK online grocer Ocado, which envisions a fully-automated AI delivery chain.
Swarms of warehouse robots bring items to human pickers to place in baskets. Another AI-based system of conveyors directs the baskets to trucks for delivery. It takes 10 minutes for items to go from where they’re stored to the trucks.
Ocado’s warehouse now moves 1,3-million items per day.
Gartner tells CEOs that AI can solve business problems today if they develop applications carefully.
But don’t let early success deceive you, Popkin says. Instead, recognise that we’re in the pioneering era.
“In the long run, you’ll get more value out on what you learn about AI than from the uses it addresses today,” says Popkin. “As the technology matures, the more obsolete today’s applications, uses and AI-driven business models will become.”
AI is still immature across key dimensions of its future function and capabilities. It’s heavily focused on core generic technologies like graphical processing units, deep neural networks and natural-language processing.
A rapid set of improvement cycles will occur as AI develops, along with a diffusion of the core technology. This will produce a vast array of everyday products and services.
“We’ll see multiple generations of the AI industry over the next 75 years, spawning new uses, markets and possibly industries,” Popkin says.