Kathy Gibson is at IDC CIO Summit in Zimbali – By 2022, at least 60% of global GDP will be digitised, with growth driven by digitally-enhanced offerings, operating and relationships driving $7,5-trillion in IT-related spending.
This digital revolution has been driven buy the emergence of the 3rd Platform of technology along with innovation accelerators, says Ranjit Rajan, associate vice -president: research (META) at IDC.
These technologies have moved beyond experimentation to innovation and the emergence of a platform that brings scale to innovation.
By 2022 and 2023, Rajan says we will see a shift from innovation to autonomy, where more systems and applications will be autonomous with embedded and immersive artificial intelligence (AI).
We are currently in the period of multiplied innovation, he adds. “This is defined by insight – there are insights everywhere,” Rajan says.
The edge is also expanding its reach. “A lot of processing is going to shift to the edge.”
There is an explosion in applications that are re-usable and componentised.
Expectations from a societal perspective are changing, even as trust becomes a major issue.
Some of the technologies emerging now include cloud. By 2022, nearly 40% of core IT spend will be cloud-related, rising to 80% or more by 2028.
Workloads are being optimised. By 2021, 70% of new enterprise applications will be developed cloud-native, based on hyperagile architecture.
Complexity is rising, By 2024, 90% of global 1000 organsitions will have a multi-cloud strategy that include intergrate tools across public and private cloud,.
But many companies will also have a hybrid cloud, Rajan says. By 2020, 75% of enterprises using public cloud will also use an enterprise private cloud platform.
Within this environment, cloud apps will explode. By 2022, more than 1-million apps and service will be available in the top five service providers, up more than 50-times from 2018.
Another big trend will be come from hyperscale cloud providers disrupting the market with the opening of regional cloud data centres.
“This will lead to a significant boost in the use of pubic cloud services,” Rajan says.
In turn, this will affect pricing as competition becomes more pervasive, and will boost the multi-cloud scenario.
Internet of Things (IoT), meanwhile, is also taking off. By 2025, 80-billion devices will be online worldwide. This will create 180 zettabytes of data and 250 000 unique IoT apps and services.
This will drive a lot of processing to the edge and, by 2022, 50% of initial IoT analytics will be at the edge.
By 2020, 70% of organisations will leverage commercial IoT platforms to develop and deploy IoT application, and more than 50% of them will have multi-vendor IoT platform environments.
5G is one of the big buzzwords today, with a number of innovative use cases expected to emerge, Rajan says.
Telcos around the world are piloting commercial 5G networks, with the first phase being non-standalone on top of 4G networks, followed in a couple of years by 5G core.
Most telco will start off with fixed wireless, but when core 5G is available more services like mass IoT will be rolled out.
AI is set to become pervasive in the enterprise. By 2020, all effective IoT efforts will include some form of AI and machine learning.
By 2021, 30% of enterprises will exploit AI and advanced customer analytics to suggest innovative customer experience actions that deliver more value.,
By 2020, 30% of enterprises will use conversation as part of their customer management.
As IT spending is reduced, 70% of CIOs will aggressively apply data and AI to IT operation, tool sand process to improve enterprise agility and accelerate innovation.
By 2023, 35% of workers will start working with bots and other forms of AI, so company leaders will have to redesign processes, performance metrics and recruitment strategies.
Use cases for AI are in security around threat detection; automated customer services agents; fraud analysis and investigation; defence, terrorism, investigation and government intelligence systems; and in IT automation.
Blockchain is in its early stages of adoption. Rajan says that over the next few years we will see the emergence of value captains within industries. These organisations will bring together other players in a blockchain around a value chain.
In all future IT endeavours, data is going to be critical, Rajan points out.
Line of business managers are putting pressure on IT because they are unable to get the full value from data.
AI and machine learning will help to resolve this and get true value form data, Rajan adds.
Security needs to go around all innovative technologies, he explains. “There is inherent risk in adopting some of these technologies.”
However, security is becoming more embedded and that is driving better trust.
By 2022, more than 60% of security spend will shift to protecting scalable edge infrastructure. During the same period, 50% of servers will encrypt data at rest and in motion.
AI will also start to come into security, with AI automation powering more than 50% of security alerts.
Digital risk will become a standard reporting mechanism as part of financial statements by 2025.
By 2023, the number of cybersecurity companies will drop by nearly 40%, Rajan adds.
In addition, companies are moving from best of breed point solutions to lifecycle management. This accounts for 50% of companies now and will rise to 90% by 2024.