James Petretta, associate director: country risk at IHS Markit, details how the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns are impacting the risk of social unrest.
Lockdowns in Asia have been enforced strictly by security forces, particularly in South Asia. Post-peak debate around state responses and availability of financial support will likely trigger anti-government sentiment and protests and riots across South Asia and in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
In Europe protests and riots will be negligible in the immediate term given lockdown conditions. However, localised short lived civil unrest caused by a lack of access to basic goods is a low-level risk. Longer term economically motivated anti-government protests are probable across the wider region if economic recovery is slow and uneven.
There is a high risk of panic-buying degenerating into looting across Latin America. Small outbreaks of violent confrontations between security forces and local residents refusing to follow government social distancing guidelines are likely in most countries.
There is a low risk of protests and riots in urban areas across the MENA region, particularly in key outbreak countries such as Iran. However, remote areas of Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq are especially vulnerable to this risk due to very low government oversight. Longer term the most vulnerable countries for destabilising unrest are Iran, Algeria, and Tunisia with anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel likely in the aftermath of the outbreak.
Major social unrest in sub-Saharan Africa would most likely take the form of rioting and looting in densely populated urban areas. Individuals and businesses linked to Asian or European descent and wealthier nationals or diaspora returnees are at risk of harassment, theft, and looting. Post-pandemic risks of larger outbreaks of unrest will be higher in countries with disputed electoral processes like Guinea, Malawi, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Burkina Faso.