Global retail sales are expected to drop by $2,1-trillion in 2020, according to a new report from Forrester.
China is the worst affected country in the Asia Pacific region, with $192-billion of retail sales (excluding restaurants, automobile, and gasoline) lost from January to February 2020 as compared to the same period in 2019. The researcher expects a drop of $658-billion for the full year of 2020 when compared to 2019, equaling a 14,7% decline in retail sales.
The report, which uses forecast modelling to identify the long- and short-term impact of Covid-19 on retail, also reveals:
* Global offline sales of nonessential items will contract by -20% in 2020;
* Online sales will remain flat in 2020 compared to 2019, and an average of $36- billion in online retail sales will be lost globally in 2020 compared to Forrester’s pre-Covid-19 forecasts;
* It will take four years for retailers to overtake pre-pandemic levels; and
* The likelihood is that the epidemic will last seven months, and from 2021 retail categories that have declined by more than 10% will only bounce back to 90% of pre-pandemic spend.