Canalys forecasts that global PC and tablet shipments will fall 7% from 395,6-million units in 2019 to 367,9-million units in 2020.
It expects the global PC market to remain flat in 2021 and return to growth of 2% in 2022.
Though the PC market has been rattled by the impact of Covid-19, the worst is behind us as Q2, Q3 and Q4 are all expected to post smaller year-on-year shipment declines than Q1.
This is mainly due to a return to a healthy supply chain and manufacturing base in China, which will serve pent-up demand in segments such as remote working and education.
Nevertheless, the recessionary impact of the coronavirus on global economies will not be minor, and consumers, businesses and governments will prioritise vital spending ahead of PC refresh when times get tough.
“From a category perspective, notebooks have been at the center of a demand surge that has left vendors and channel partners scrambling,” says Ishan Dutt, analyst at Canalys. “We expect this demand to persist as many businesses that have been forced into home working and found it successful are now choosing to implement it on a larger scale.
“The same holds true for education, where schools have made investments in digital curricula and are implementing only partial returns to on-premises learning.
“Desktop refresh will suffer to a greater degree as businesses face prolonged uncertainty about the scope of their operations and dedicated office space needs.
“Tablets, which have the greatest reliance on consumer spending, will face a slump as holiday season demand in Q4 is expected to take a hit this year.”
Looking further ahead, there are some reasons for vendors, channel partners and component suppliers to be optimistic, as the importance of PCs has come to the fore during the pandemic.
“Covid-19 has given the PC industry a boost. Despite the progress that smartphones and tablets have made in recent years, the need for a high-performance mobile computing device has never been more pronounced. As countries emerge from this crisis and the ensuing economic slump, spending on technology solutions will be a key recovery driver,” says Rushabh Doshi, Canalys research director.
“Canalys expects the global PC market to return to growth of 2% in 2022, with desktop and notebook shipments overcoming prolonged weakness in the tablet space. But it is important to keep things in perspective: a modest recovery from a weak 2020 will not see the PC market return to the highs of 2019 for some years to come.”
As most major markets in Europe are starting to relax lockdown measures, Canalys expects a short-term demand bump that will soften the shipment decline in Q2 to -1%.
But, with the bulk of commercial refresh having occurred last year, and businesses and consumers being forced to tighten their purse strings, the second half of 2020 will see sharp declines on the equivalent period in 2019.
Countries in Africa and the Middle East, which have suffered from low prioritization due to limited supply by vendors and the channel so far this year, will see some demand start to be fulfilled from Q3 onwards.
Overall, PC and tablet shipments to EMEA are set to fall 10% in 2020 before posting growth of 1% in 2021.