In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic had a noticeable impact on violence, with some improvements, such as violent conflict, while other indicators deteriorated significantly including violent demonstrations. Three times as many countries deteriorated than improved.
Key insights from the 15th edition of the Global Peace Index by the international think-tank the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) include:
* Civil unrest rose globally by 10%, with Belarus recording the largest deterioration. There were 14 871 violent demonstrations, protests and riots recorded globally in 2020.
* Over 60% of people globally are worried about sustaining serious harm from violent crime.
* Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, and Afghanistan the least peaceful.
* Although there has been an improvement in militarisation since 2008, there are now signs that this trend has reversed.
* The economic impact of violence increased in 2020 to $14,96-trillion – equivalent to 11,6% of the world’s GDP or $1 942 per person – due to increased military spending.
* The death toll from terrorism has declined for the sixth consecutive year.
Due to Covid-19, political instability also increased with twice as many countries deteriorating than improving.
There were widespread protests against pandemic related measures with over 5 000 events recorded globally. Countries such as India, Chile, Italy, France, Germany, and South Africa were particularly impacted by demonstrations.
The Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Slovenia, and Switzerland are best placed for a post-Covid-19 recovery.
The 15th edition of the annual Global Peace Index (GPI) report, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, reveals that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated for the ninth time in 12 years in 2020. Overall, 87 countries improved in peacefulness, whilst 73 deteriorated. This was the second smallest in the history of the index but the report also reveals that improvements in peace are more gradual than declines. As much of the world looks towards a COVID-19 recovery, increased civil unrest and political instability will be important to navigate.
The largest improvement in peacefulness occurred in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which recorded significant reductions in conflict; however, it is still the least peaceful region in the world. Iraq recorded the second largest improvement globally after Ukraine. Burkina Faso experienced the biggest deterioration of any country in the world, falling 13 places.
The indicators that had the largest deteriorations in the 2021 GPI were: military expenditure (105 countries), weapons imports (90 countries), political instability (46 countries) and violent demonstrations (25 countries). The following indicators had the most improvements: terrorism (115 countries), internal conflicts fought (21 countries) and deaths from internal conflict (33 countries).
Steve Killelea, founder and executive chairman of IEP, comments: “The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated shifts in global peacefulness. Although there was a fall in the level of conflict and terrorism in 2020, political instability and violent demonstrations have increased. The economic fallout from the pandemic will create further uncertainty, especially for countries that were struggling prior to the pandemic.”
Thomas Morgan, associate director of research at IEP, says: “Violence is a very real and significant threat to many people around the world. Over 60% of people globally are worried about being the victim of violent crime. However, despite the high fear of violence most people feel the world is getting safer. Nearly 75% of people globally felt that the world was as safe or safer than five years ago.”
Violence remains a pressing issue for many people globally and is cited as the biggest risk to daily safety in almost a third of countries. Over half of the population in Afghanistan, Brazil, South Africa, Mexico, and Dominican Republic reported violence as the greatest risk to their safety in their daily lives.
Despite this, some indicators of violence have recorded significant improvements since the start of the index, including perceptions of criminality which has improved in 86 countries. One hundred and twenty-three countries have seen their homicide rate fall since 2008 and people from 84 countries have stated they feel safer walking alone.
Even with these improvements, data has revealed that women are 5% more fearful of violence than men** – while some countries have extreme differences. In Portugal 23% of women are more fearful of violence than men.
Regional overview:
* The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) remained the world’s least peaceful region, but recorded the biggest improvement.
* In Sub-Saharan Africa, half of the population have had a recent experience of violence. Those living in Namibia had the highest experience of violence in the world at 63%.
* Over 50% of people in the Asia-Pacific region feel safer now than five years ago. In China, 63% of people said that they felt safer, which is the best result in the region.
* Europe recorded an improvement in peacefulness on the 2021 GPI, because of the continued improvement of the terrorism impact indicator.
* North America had the largest deterioration on the index fuelled by political instability in the US.
* For the first time in five years, peacefulness deteriorated in Russia and Eurasia due to an increase in violent demonstrations.
* South America experienced the second largest regional deterioration, owing to increases in violent crime and civil unrest.
* Due to improvements in the Militarisation and Safety and Security domain, South Asia was one of only three regions to record an improvement in peacefulness over the last year.
* In Central America and the Caribbean, nine countries deteriorated, with only Nicaragua, Haiti, and Guatemala recording improvements.