New retail statistics highlight a significant opportunity for South African retailers to build on the momentum of Black Friday and end the year on a high note.
The research, commissioned by Capital Connect, shows total retail sales for 2024 are forecasted to be 19% higher in November 2024 and 48% higher in December 2024, than the average retail sales for the first 10 months of the year.
The data projects total retail sales of nearly R169-billion in December 2024 and R136-billion in November 2024, compared to a monthly average retail sales of R114-billion for January 2024 to October 2024. This shows how consumer behaviour has evolved in recent years, with shoppers using November as a warm-up for a month-long festive season shopping spree.
Retail sales performance can be broken down as follows:
| Retail sub-sectorº | Average Jan to Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | Dec 2024 |
| General dealers | R53.7 billion | R64.2 billion | R76.4 billion |
| Retailers of food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores | R9.6 billion | R9.9 billion | R14.5 billion |
| Retailers in pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics and toiletries | R9.1 billion | R8.9 billion | R9.9 billion |
| Retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods | R17.8 billion | R23.4 billion | R38 billion |
| Retailers in household furniture, appliances and equipment | R4.2 billion | R6 billion | R6.4 billion |
| Retailers in hardware, paint and glass | R8.9 billion | R10.4 billion | R9.8 billion |
| All other retailers | R10.8 billion | R13.2 billion | R13.9 billion |
ºNumbers rounded up or down to one decimal point.
“Black Friday has become more than just a single day of deals—it’s the kick-off for festive season shopping,” says Steven Heilbron, CEO of Capital Connect. “With signs of improved consumer confidence this year, Black Friday is a potential springboard into a strong holiday season for South African retailers.
“Our data projects that sales momentum will carry from November into December this year, particularly in sectors like general goods, clothing, specialised food and beverages, furniture and electronics. To maximise revenues, retailers should strategically plan inventory and marketing to meet rising demand.”
Retailers can capitalise on the springboard effect through actions such as:
- Tight management of inventory and logistics: Retailers should align inventory levels with expected spikes in demand in December. Having stock that can meet the demands for both last-minute holiday shoppers and pre-planners, will help prevent missed opportunities.
- Leveraging Black Friday insights for December strategies: By tracking Black Friday sales data, retailers will gain valuable insights into customer preferences and buying behaviours, allowing for targeted promotions and product highlights. As the festive season peaks, adjusting marketing campaigns to reflect trends observed in November can help keep momentum going.
- Optimising online and in-store experiences: Retailers should offer omnichannel customer journeys that maximise reach and sales. Expert advice or hands-on demos in-store could attract customers who value real-world experiences and love to shop. Online ordering, delivery options and in-store pickups can target consumers looking for convenience.
- Making it festive: Targeting customers with festive events can help drive foot traffic. Examples are festive treats served in your coffee shop, Christmas lunch cooking and baking classes, or an opportunity for kids to meet ‘Father Christmas’. The right signage and store décor also go a long way during this time of the year.
- Positioning for wallet share: Savvy retailers will aim to capture as much revenue as they can from each customer with a diverse, well-priced product selection. Offering a mixture of price points and products can help to maximise revenue share. White label brands and product bundles can also provide effective basket value.
“As retailers prepare for the holiday shopping season, fast access to opportunity capital becomes crucial to maximise profitability,” says Heilbron. “Fintech-type retail loans can enable retailers to stock up on festive season inventory, invest in promotions or do last-minute store revamps.”