Donald Trump’s return to the US White House next week is seen by many – including South Africa – as a “good thing” for peace in the world, American influence, and dialogue between leading powers.
However, this feeling is not shared by some of Washington’s closest allies, including citizens from the UK, the EU and South Korea.
This is the central finding of a major new multi-country polling report, published today by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in cooperation with Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World project.
The study, “Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections”, is underpinned by survey data from 24 countries (including South Africa) and finds that public attitudes towards US power and its global role have shifted.
The US is no longer understood to be spreading its values and acting as a global defender of the liberal international order. Instead, contrary to president-elect, Donald Trump’s talk of “Making America Great Again”, few in the world see a future in which the US will hold the mantle of the globe’s leading superpower.
Indeed, ECFR’s poll shows that most respondents see China – rather than America – as the country that will assume this role in the coming period. This suggests that Trump’s return comes as American geopolitical exceptionalism is beginning to recede, and points to a destination whereby the US will sit among other great powers in a multipolar world.
Key findings from ECFR’s latest multi-country survey include:
- Citizens of leading middle powers are optimistic about the return of Donald Trump. In countries from India and China to Türkiye and Brazil, majorities or pluralities think the return of Trump will be a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world, their country, and American citizens. This is especially pronounced in India (where 82% see it as a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world; 84% view it as good for ‘their country’; and 85% a ‘good thing’ for American citizens), and Saudi Arabia (57%, for peace in the world; 61%, for their country; and 69%, for American citizens).
- Trump’s peace-maker pitch, vis-à-vis Ukraine and the Middle East, has resonated globally. In India, for example, large majorities (65% for Ukraine; 62% for the Middle East) believe that Trump’s return will make peace more likely. This position is also evident in Saudi Arabia (62% for Ukraine; 54% for the Middle East), Russia (61% for Ukraine; 41% for the Middle East), China (60% for Ukraine; 48% for the Middle East) and the US (52% for Ukraine; 44% for the Middle East). Ukrainians, however, are more reticent when it comes to Trump’s ability to bring peace, with surveyed respondents broadly divided on the question (39% believing his return will help bring peace to Ukraine, and 35% saying it is less likely). Optimism about Trump’s peace-making capacities is the weakest in Europe and South Korea.
- America’s allies are nervous about Trump 2.0 – and doubt it will bring positive change. In the UK, South Korea and countries of the EU – all of which are key allies of the US – there is scepticism that a Trump presidency will make any difference to the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Just 24% in the UK, 31% in South Korea, and 34% in the EU (average result across 11 EU countries polled) believe Trump’s return would make achieving peace in Ukraine more likely, while even fewer people (16% in the UK, 25% in the EU and 19% in South Korea) believe he will make it more likely to achieve peace in the Middle East. More broadly, just one in five in the EU (22%) say they now view the US as an ally. This is down significantly from two years ago (31%) and stands in contrast to the proportion of Americans who view the EU as an ally (45%).
- US influence in the world is predicted to grow – although few believe it will result in global dominance. The prevailing view, across the publics surveyed, is that the US will have “more” global influence over the next ten years however they do not see it as the beginning of ‘Making America Great Again’. The idea of US dominance is not widely shared, with majorities in China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Indonesia, South Africa, Switzerland, Brazil, the EU, and the UK, predicting China will become the strongest power in the world in the next 20 years. Only in Ukraine and South Korea are there majorities who consider such an outcome “unlikely” – while the public in India and the US is divided on this point.
- The report identifies five distinct citizen groups on Trump’s return to the White House. “Trump Welcomers”, who are most pronounced in India (75%) and Saudi Arabia (49%), and popular in Russia (38%), South Africa (35%), China (34%), and Brazil (33%), see the president-elect as positive for Americans and for peace in the world. “Never Trumpers”, who record the highest shares of the public in the UK (50%), Switzerland (37%), and the EU (28%), see his victory in a negative light – both for American citizens and for peace in the world. “Peace-seekers”, who consider Trump’s re-election as better for peace in the world than for American citizens, are most numerous in China (21%), Switzerland (16%) and Ukraine (13%). The “Conflicted”, which herald from countries that are at risk of American reshoring – including 48% of South Koreans – believe Trump’s election is worse for peace in the world than it is for American citizens. And, last, there are the “Uncertains”, who are striking a cautious ‘wait-and-see’ approach, saying that Trump is “neither good nor bad” for American citizens and peace in the world. This position is particularly pronounced in Ukraine (20%) and Russia (16%).
- The EU is held in high regard – with many seeing growth in the bloc’s influence. Majorities in India (62%), South Africa (60%), Brazil (58%), and Saudi Arabia (51%), and pluralities in Ukraine (49%), Türkiye (48%), China (44%), Indonesia (42%) and the US (38%) believe the EU will wield “more influence”, globally, in the coming decade. The bloc is also widely seen as an “ally” or “necessary partner” by respondents of the countries surveyed. This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner, vs. 4% rival or adversary), the United States (76% ally or partner, vs. 9% rival or adversary), South Korea (79% vs. 14%). But it’s also a majority view everywhere else – except for Russia.
Foreign policy experts and report authors, Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev and Timothy Garton Ash, suggest European leaders may struggle to find internal unity or global allies if they try to shape a worldwide liberal resistance to the president-elect. In the last two years, with the Biden administration standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Europe on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was still possible to speak of a ‘united West’ on foreign policy. However, with Trump’s return, divisions run not just between the US and Europe, and other key allies such as South Korea, but within the EU itself.
The authors identify trends that could assist the EU against this backdrop, and help it become stronger and more united in the coming period. First, its sense of certainty when it comes to its own interests and shaping relations with powers. Secondly, global perceptions of its status as a world power and growing influence.
And lastly, its potential for strategic partnerships, with countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa, where people broadly see the EU as both powerful and as an ally or a partner. The recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement shows the kind of deals that a more united EU could make, the authors note, and recommend that instead of posing as a moral arbiter, Europe should build its domestic strength and seek new bilateral partnerships to defend its own values.
Ivan Krastev, co-author and chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, comments: “Europe is quite lonely in its anxiety about Trump’s return to the White House. While many Europeans view the president-elect as a disrupter, others, elsewhere in the world, see him as a peacemaker. This position leaves Europe at a crossroads in its relations with the new American administration.”
ECFR co-founder and director Mark Leonard adds: “Although many Europeans are freaking out about the prospects of Trump in the White House, most of the rest of the world believe his presidency will be good for the United States, the world and peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Rather than trying to lead a global resistance to Trump, Europeans should take responsibility for their own interests – and find ways of building new relationships in a more transactional world.”
Timothy Garton Ash, co-author and historian, says: “Europe may stand almost alone in a Trumpian world, but this doesn’t mean we Europeans are powerless to act. There are opportunities in this new, transactional space for alliances and influence. Indeed, the very fact that the EU is held in such high regard by people in so many countries and is even expected to grow in strength in the coming decade, should give leaders hope that there is room for a strong and independent-minded Europe in the world.”