The seasonally adjusted Absa PMI increased by 4 points to 48.7 in March – the highest level since October 2024.
However, weak readings in January and February have resulted in a first-quarter average of just 46.2 points, down from 49 points in Q4 2024.
Key highlights from the March 2025 PMI include:
- Business Activity Rebounds: The business activity index rose by 7.7 points to 48.3, reflecting improved operational levels in response to higher demand.
- Stronger New Sales Orders: The new sales orders index jumped by 10.2 points to 48.7, supported by a recovery in export sales, which returned to expansionary territory for the first time in four months.
- Export Boost Amid Global Headwinds: The export market showed resilience, despite ongoing global trade tensions and local logistical challenges, especially at South African ports.
- Supplier Deliveries Improve Slightly: The supplier deliveries index edged down by 0.8 points to 54.1, indicating faster delivery times—though this may be due to softer demand.
- Employment Index Inches Up: The employment index increased by 3.9 points to 46.1, but remains in contractionary territory, now marking a full year of subdued employment levels.
- Inventories Decline: The inventories index ticked down to 45.9, as manufacturers worked through existing stock amid cautious activity levels.
- Cost Pressures Ease: The purchasing price index dropped by 5.9 points to 64.5, as a stronger rand reduced the cost of imported materials and fuel.
- Business Confidence Slips: The index tracking expected business conditions in six months’ time decreased by 2.5 points to 58, dipping below 60 for the first time since May 2024. This reflects concerns around the return of load-shedding and ongoing strain in SA-US trade relations.
The March PMI results point to tentative signs of recovery, particularly in external demand, but underline the fragility of the sector amid ongoing structural and geopolitical challenges.