The BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI), measuring the value of all electronic transactions cleared through BankservAfrica on a monthly basis at seasonally adjusted real prices, showed a slight recovery in March 2025.
However, ongoing global uncertainty and weak local growth raise concerns that economic activity may slow further, with little indication of a sustained turnaround.
“The BETI reached an index level of 137.1 in March, increasing by 0.3% on February’s level of 136.6,” says Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s head of stakeholder engagements. “However, concerningly, this level fell slightly below the 137.2 recorded in January.”
Despite the mostly sideways movement, the BETI remains 2,8% above a year earlier, reflecting the favourable retail environment driven by headline inflation at 3,2% – supporting an increase in real wages and purchasing power – in addition to the fuel price drop and the interest rate at 75bps lower than a year earlier.
“The BETI remains stuck in muddling-along-mode, reflecting the inability of the South African economy to gain meaningful momentum, an ongoing narrative since mid-2024,” says independent economist Elize Kruger.
She adds: “The lack of momentum in economic growth is concerning, as the economy remains on the back foot, with population growth outpacing economic growth, minimal progress on employment, a precarious fiscal position and limited capacity to absorb unexpected shocks – especially given current global developments.”
The escalation in the global trade war – with US President Donald Trump’s announcement
, while the anticipated downturn in the global economy will be negative for commodity demand and prices, the significant drop in the international oil price is likely to soften the trade and inflationary impact on South Africa somewhat, according to Kruger.
A substantial portion of export commodities have been exempted from the announced US import tariffs, which in combination with a weaker exchange rate, could also provide a buffer for the mining industry and subsequently provide some support for the local economy.
“Though the rand has come under significant pressure due to the widespread risk-off sentiment, the price of gold, which is considered to be a safe-haven asset in these turbulent times, has remained elevated, shielding South Africa somewhat from the harsh impact of the sudden negative trade shock,” says Kruger.
While it is still early days to measure the full impact of recent developments, Carpe Diem Research Services has revised the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1% from the previous 1,5%. In 2024, South Africa’s growth rate was 0,6%.
Other economic indicators were mixed in March, sending conflicting signals about the strength of the unfolding cyclical economic recovery. The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained below the 50.0 ‘no-change threshold’ for the fourth consecutive month.
The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), reflecting on prospects in the manufacturing sector, remained in contractionary territory for a fifth consecutive month. Encouragingly, figures released by Naamsa revealed strong performance with new passenger car sales powering ahead with a growth of 25,3% y/y in March.
After moderating somewhat in early 2025, the number of transactions that cleared through BankservAfrica in March 2025 increased to an all-time high of 172,4-million, 10,4% up on a year ago. Volumes for all categories of payments increased in March 2025. The standardised nominal value of transactions also increased to R1,364-trillion in March compared to R1,332-trillion in February 2025.
“South Africa is currently facing pressure on both global and local fronts. Uncertainty surrounding the 2025 National Budget has reversed the confidence gains experienced since mid-2024,” says Kruger. “Stability and strong political leadership are needed to steer the economy through troubled waters. A continued focus on structural reforms could lift the local economy’s growth potential and serve as a buffer during these turbulent global times.”