Advanced data visibility and the insights gained from scenario planning can enable chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) to be a driving force to navigate risk and uncertainty for their organisations, says Gartner.
During the opening keynote at this year’s Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo in Barcelona, attendees learned how macro trends – geopolitical tensions, global trade and economic uncertainty, and advanced technology such as AI – are creating a multitude of potential outcomes for organisations, and the opportunity that exists for supply chain leaders to turn divergence into advantage.
“The trends that are reshaping our world are not short-term disruptions,” says Lindsay Azim, director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “These are generational shifts in how we live and operate, leading to peak levels of global uncertainty. If not addressed, divergence will create confusion, challenging the organisation’s ability to stay focused.”
Amid uncertainty, CEOs will look to supply chain leaders to deliver a competitive edge. However, many supply chain organisations lack the capabilities to prepare for uncertainty and future challenges. For example, while advanced data visibility and scenario planning are consistently recognised as aspirational capabilities, few organisations are prioritising investment and fully integrating these capabilities into their overall strategies.
According to a survey of 506 supply chain leaders conducted by Gartner in December 2024, only 19% of organisations fully integrate scenario planning into their supply chain strategies – and just 32% of those earn their CEO’s recognition for alignment with business strategy.
To deliver value amid heightened uncertainty and divergent outcomes, Gartner recommends investing in:
- Advanced Data Visibility for Better Execution: Technology- and data-driven insights are indispensable assets for understanding and managing geopolitical risks. Advanced visibility helps to better connect with real-time events, derive deeper insights and decision models, and to make faster decisions in response to the divergence.
- Scenario Planning for Risk Assessment and Preparedness: Proactive risk management during geopolitical turmoil is crucial for helping supply chains to prepare for uncertainty. Developing future-focused “what if” scenarios helps to identify risk events that may require the supply chain to adjust. Organisations should conduct scenario analysis regularly, at least, every time the organisation’s network footprint is evaluated or a new supply chain strategy is developed.
Supply chain leaders should also orchestrate dynamic supply chain outcomes by diversifying networks and modeling new options to deliver the capacity to help drive growth. They can also help accelerate innovation and drive value from technologies such as AI. This can be achieved by developing an investment profile based on factors such as risk tolerance, regulatory obligations, culture – and then choosing the right investments at the appropriate stage of maturity.
Azim noted, “Divergence doesn’t create just two possible outcomes, it creates an infinite number of possible outcomes over time,” says Azim. “Through access to high-quality data and scenario planning, CSCOs can take steps to mitigate risk, drive resilience, and deliver profitable growth, achieving the competitive edge leadership needs.”