Global trade expanded by an estimated $300-billion in the first half of 2025, despite a slower pace of growth, according to the latest Global Trade Update from the UN Trade a,nd Development (UNCTAD).
Global trade rose by about 15% in the first quarter, with growth expected to accelerate to 2% in the second quarter. Trade in services remained the main engine of annual growth, rising 9% over the last four quarters.
Price increases contributed to the overall rise in trade value. Prices for traded goods edged up in the first quarter and likely continued to rise in the second, while trade volumes grew by just 1%.
Developed economies outpaced developing countries in the first quarter of 2025, reversing recent trends that had favoured the Global South. The shift was driven by a 14% surge in US imports and a 6% jump in European Union exports.
In contrast, developing countries saw a 2% drop in imports. South-South trade stagnated overall, though Africa bucked the trend with exports up 5% and intraregional trade growing 16% year on year.
Trade imbalances deepened during the last four quarters, with the US posting a larger deficit and China and the European Union recording growing surpluses.
Bilateral gaps also widened between the US and key partners, including China ($360-billion annual deficit), the EU ($276-billion) and Vietnam ($116-billion).
Global trade imbalances widened in 2025
Trade balance in goods in billions of dollars, 2023–2025 Q1
Source: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) estimates based on national statistics.
Outlook uncertain as trade faces policy risks and geopolitical headwinds
The report warns that global trade faces mounting headwinds in the second half of 2025, amid persistent policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and signs of slowing global growth.
New US tariffs – including a 10% baseline rate and additional duties on steel and aluminum – have raised the risk of trade fragmentation. And while retaliatory measures have so far been limited, a further wave of unilateral actions could trigger escalation, spilling over to third-party countries and destabilising supply chains.
Domestic subsidies and inward-looking industrial policies are also expected to intensify, particularly in strategic and high-tech sectors. These measures risk disrupting deeply integrated production networks, with uncertainty in one segment spilling over to others.
Still, signs of resilience remain. Freight indices have rebounded from early-2025 lows, regional integration is strengthening, and services trade may continue its robust growth.
UNCTAD says that continued resilience in the second half of 2025 will depend on “policy clarity, geoeconomic developments and supply chain adaptability.”