Gold traded just $23 short of its all-time high this week as investors positioned for fresh US rate cuts and a weaker dollar, prompting the financial advisory deVere Group to predict that it could climb to $5 000 per ounce before the end of the first quarter of 2026.
“Gold’s proximity to record highs underlines the direction of travel,” says Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “We expect that sustained demand, falling real yields, and fiscal and geopolitical strains will propel gold to $5 000 by the end of Q1 2026. The conditions are already in place, and momentum is building.”
Spot gold rose 0,9% to $3 477.56 per ounce by mid-morning on Monday – its strongest since April when it briefly crossed $3 500. Futures followed the move, while silver rallied above $40 for the first time since 2011. The dollar index weakened to its lowest level in over a month, adding support by making dollar-priced bullion more attractive to overseas buyers.
“Gold traditionally benefits in a low-rate environment and we predict cuts from the Federal Reserve this month,” Green explains. “Every cut reduces the appeal of cash and bonds. Combined with ongoing inflation, heavy government borrowing, and geopolitical uncertainty this strengthens gold’s case.”
Central banks are a major driver. The People’s Bank of China has continued to buy bullion month after month, while others across Asia and the Middle East are expanding reserves at the fastest sustained pace in decades.
“We forecast this accumulation will continue as governments look to diversify away from the dollar and build independence into their balance sheets,” says Green. “Gold requires no promises and no permissions – qualities highly valued in today’s fractured system.”
On the supply side, constraints remain. Mining output has stagnated, new discoveries are rare, and environmental and cost pressures are limiting future growth.
“When strong sovereign demand meets flat supply, the long-term trajectory – in our view – is higher,” he says.
Private investors are also reshaping portfolios. Sovereign mints are recording healthy sales, ETFs are reporting inflows, and institutional allocators are increasing allocations.
“We predict that this realignment will accelerate as more investors treat gold as a primary holding, not just a hedge,” Green comments.
Markets are watching closely for Friday’s US jobs report, which is expected to reinforce the case for rate cuts from September.
“If growth weakens further, the Fed will cut,” says Green. “We expect this will be another catalyst for gold to move firmly above record levels and set the stage for $5 000.”
Trade policy uncertainty is likely to add further support. President Donald Trump’s administration is continuing talks with partners despite a US court ruling against tariffs, maintaining an atmosphere of unpredictability.
“We forecast that ongoing trade frictions, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical rivalries will encourage both public and private investors to increase their exposure to politically neutral, globally recognised assets like gold,” explains Green.
What matters most, deVere believes, is how investor psychology has shifted. Levels once seen as ceilings are now viewed as floors.
“Momentum is self-reinforcing,” Green adds. “Each time gold climbs higher, more capital enters, creating confirmation of trend. This cycle is likely to accelerate the move to $5 000.
“In our view, gold is reflecting the reality of today’s economy – high debt, unstable currencies, and structural inflation,” he says. “Most investors are no longer debating whether they should hold it. The question now is how much exposure they want.”