The seasonally adjusted PMI declined by 1.6 points to 49.2 in October, reversing the gain seen in September when the index reached 50.8.
The latest reading suggests that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure, with respondents pointing to subdued domestic demand, sluggish exports, and persistent logistical challenges as key headwinds.
Key highlights from the October 2025 PMI include:
- Business Activity Weakens Again: The business activity index declined by 5.0 points to 49.4, falling back into contractionary territory after a brief recovery in September. This marks the ninth out of ten months in 2025 where output has remained below the neutral 50-point mark. Despite the decline, October activity remains the second-highest level this year, behind only September.
- New Sales Orders Decline: New sales orders dropped by 3.9 points to 48.9, following a 5.4-point rise in September. This suggests that the brief recovery in demand was short-lived, with both domestic and export orders underperforming. Export volumes continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month, compounded by US trade tariffs and ongoing port issues.
- Supplier Deliveries Improve – For Unclear Reasons: The supplier deliveries index decreased by 1.4 points to 53.5, suggesting quicker delivery times. However, it is uncertain whether this is due to lower order volumes or improvements in port performance in KwaZulu-Natal.
- Employment Improves Slightly But Remains Weak: The employment index increased by 2.2 points to 45.1, but continues to remain well below the 50-point threshold, where it has been stuck since April 2024. Manufacturers remain hesitant to increase headcount given the ongoing volatility in demand and rising cost pressures.
- Inventories Remain Unchanged: The inventories index remained steady at 48.8, unchanged from September. This may reflect limited confidence in future demand, as businesses avoid overstocking amid uncertain conditions.
- Cost Pressures Intensify: The purchasing price index edged up by 0.2 points to 61.9. This slight increase comes despite a relatively stronger rand and mixed fuel price movements. Petrol prices rose by 1–8 cents per litre, while diesel prices declined by 8–10 cents. Input cost inflation remains elevated, with intermediate goods PPI rising to 7.6% in September, up from 6.5% in August.
- Outlook Deteriorates Further: The index tracking expected business conditions in six months’ time fell by 3.1 points to 46.1, marking the lowest level since April 2025 (48.6). The decline underscores growing concern among manufacturers about the medium-term economic environment.
The October PMI results reinforce the fragility of the manufacturing recovery, with weakening demand and softening output outweighing modest improvements in employment. Business confidence remains low as the sector continues to navigate external trade constraints, supply-side uncertainty, and cost volatility.