With consumers increasingly embracing online shopping, widespread Black Friday e-commerce promotions are likely to fuel another strong sales year.
Although shoppers are likely to remain cautious in their spending, improving economic conditions and other key factors may lead to increased demand for big-ticket items, according to PayInc, which provides a view of interbank transactions processed on behalf of banks.
“Last year’s Black Friday outperformed a typical shopping day, showing steady year-on-year growth,” says Solly Bellingan, head of marketing at PayInc. “Our 3D-Secure online card authentication service2 reflected a 6% year-on-year increase for overall online shopping volumes, up 27% on a normal shopping day. Our in-store card transactions improved by 24% on the previous day and increased by 10% on an annual basis.”
PayInc data shows that last year’s shopping trends were shaped by several factors, including the overlap of payday and month-end specials on Black Friday. With promotions running throughout November, more consumers spread their spend across the month. For others, Black Friday held less significance.
Economic conditions signal a good Black Friday 2025
Following a bumpy start to 2025, marked by economic and trade uncertainty after the US imposed punitive import tariffs, both the global and local economy positively surprised, showing remarkable resilience.
“South African consumers benefited from several tailwinds in 2025 that supported household spending and helped position the retail sector as one of the standout performers in the economy this year,” says independent economist Elize Kruger.
The following developments are likely to have a positive impact on this year’s Black Friday and Black November sales:
- Consumer inflation has averaged 3,2% in the first 10 months of 2025, down from 4.4% in 2024 – with a full-year forecast of 3,2%, 2025 is on track to record the lowest inflation since 2006 easing pressure on consumers’ purchasing power. This low inflation has created room for interest rate cuts with the current prime rate at 10,5% – 75 basis points (bps) lower than in November 2024 – with cumulative cuts of 125bps to date, reducing the cost of credit for consumers. A further 25bps cut is expected at today’s MPC meeting, which will bring the prime rate to 10,25%, a full percentage point lower year-on-year and a likely boost to consumer confidence ahead of the spending season.
- Real salary growth has returned – PayInc data shows that the upward trend in net salaries from 2024 has continued into 2025, with average nominal net salaries up 4,3% in the first nine months, close to the 4,6% mark for the full 2024 year. The recovery reflects improving economic activity despite ongoing challenges. Real net salaries, as measured by the PayInc Net Salary Index, are up 1,2% year-on-year. If sustained, 2025 will mark the second consecutive year of real earnings growth, supporting consumer spending. Some 248 000 jobs were created in the economy in Q3 2025, boosting overall spending power.
- Two-pot retirement withdrawals may add additional spending power – according to SARS data, gross withdrawals, before tax, amounted to R18,2-billion in the first half of FY26, between April–September 2025, bringing total withdrawals since the system’s launch on 1 September 2024 to roughly R57-billion across more than 4-million transactions, some of which may feed into retail spending.
- A stronger rand has also supported consumer pricing.The currency is nearly 9% stronger compared to the start of 2024, helping contain fuel costs and reduce the price of imported goods – a trend that could support more competitive pricing over the peak spending period.
“Despite the good news, household confidence levels have remained generally depressed, partly due to high debt levels and the elevated cost of living. With consumers still highly price-sensitive, Black Friday could prompt more people to stock up on attractive deals for the upcoming season,” says Kruger.
“However, given the improving environment and lower cost of credit over the past year, bigger-ticket items such as appliances are likely to see stronger demand compared to recent years.”
An analysis of retail data shows that consumers once shifted spending from December to November, with the trend peaking in 2019 when November outperformed December. Covid-19 disruptions reversed this pattern, and for the next four years, December sales were stronger. In 2024, the two months recorded similar growth rates.
“With consumers better positioned to spend this year, both November and December are expected to deliver strong retail results,” says Kruger.
Expectations for cash, future shifts driven by PayShap
As the Cash Independent Administrator, PayInc expects cash to be widely used during Black Friday. This is in line with notes and coins remaining widely favoured amongst South Africans.
However, e-commerce payment innovations are set to drive future shifts in Black Friday online shopping. PayShap Request, a PayShap functionality that enables small businesses and merchants to accept real-time digital payments for goods and services, is poised to broaden payment options for online shoppers as adoption grows.
Already in use among some e-commerce payment enablers through sponsored banks, it is expected to see wider acceptance across the digital retail ecosystem in the near future.
“Black Friday 2025 is shaping up to deliver strong retail activity. With multinational department stores entering the market and retailers offering increasingly competitive deals, it will be interesting to see how this influences Black Friday and an ordinary shopping day,” says Bellingan.
He adds: “At the same time, the rise of new digital payment methods is set to transform the Black Friday e-commerce landscape tremendously in the years to come – this is definitely an exciting time for digital payments.”