South Africa’s mobile services market is set to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1,1% from $7,1-billion in 2025 to $7,5-billion in 2030.
While traditional voice revenues continue to erode, sustained growth in mobile broadband, expanding LTE footprints, and a rapid shift toward higher average revenue per user (ARPU) 5G plans will anchor the overall market performance through 2030, according to GlobalData.
GlobalData’s South Africa Mobile Broadband Forecast (Q3-2025) reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline at a 1% CAGR over the forecast period, owing to the increasing consumer shift towards OTT/internet-based communication platforms, and the subsequent decline in voice ARPU levels.
Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 2,1% between 2025 and 2030, driven by the continued growth in mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing consumption of mobile data services, most importantly with increasing adoption of higher-ARPU yielding-5G services.
Hrushikesh Mahananda, telecom analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 5,5GB in 2025 to 14,3GB in 2030, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by telcos.”
4G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2030 as operators continue to enhance and expand their LTE networks. The government’s push for 2G/3G network shutdown will also encourage subscriber migration to 4G and even 5G services in the coming years.
5G subscriptions are estimated to increase at the fastest rate over the forecast period and are expected to account for about 34% of the total mobile subscriptions by the end of 2030, thanks to the efforts made by the government and telcos to expand 5G services across the country and increasing availability of affordable 5G-enabled handsets.
Mahananda concludes: “Vodacom South Africa will lead the mobile services market in terms of subscriptions through 2030, given its strong focus on 4G and 5G network investments, and its ongoing network expansion and development efforts to serve the rising demand for high-speed services by customers.”