The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, published yesterday (14 January), finds geoeconomic confrontation emerges as the top risk for the year, followed by interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarisation and misinformation and disinformation.
The outlook from leaders and experts shows deep concern. Half of those surveyed anticipate a turbulent or stormy world over the next two years, up 14 percentage points from last year.
A further 40% expect the two-year outlook to be unsettled at the very least, while 9% expect stability and 1% predict calm.
When it comes to the outlook for the next 10 years, 57% expect a turbulent or stormy world, 32% expect things to be unsettled, 10% predict stability and 1% anticipate calm.
“A new competitive order is taking shape as major powers seek to secure their spheres of interest. This shifting landscape, where cooperation looks markedly different than it did yesterday, reflects a pragmatic reality: collaborative approaches and the spirit of dialogue remain essential,” says Børge Brende, president and CEO of World Economic Forum.
“Our Annual Meeting in Davos will serve as a vital platform for understanding risks and opportunities and for building the bridges needed to address them.”
Saadia Zahidi, MD of World Economic Forum, adds: “The Global Risks Report offers an early warning system as the age of competition compounds global risks – from geoeconomic confrontation to unchecked technology to rising debt – and changes our collective capacity to address them.
“But none of these risks are a foregone conclusion. The challenges highlighted in the report underscore both the scale of the potential perils we face and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
Wef risks
The report analyses risks across three timeframes: immediate (2026); short-to-medium term (the next two years); and long term (the next 10 years). In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponization of economic tools and societal fragmentation are colliding.
As these immediate risks intensify, longer-term challenges from technological acceleration to environmental decline are also creating knock-on effects.
Geopolitical, economic and geoeconomic risks surge
Geoeconomic confrontation tops the near-term rankings, with 18% of respondents viewing it as the risk most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026, as well as being ranked first for severity over the next two years, up eight positions from last year.
State-based armed conflict follows in second position for 2026, dropping to fifth position in the two-year timeframe.
In a world of rising rivalries and prolonged conflicts, confrontation threatens supply chains and broader global economic stability as well as the cooperative capacity required to address economic shocks. When it comes to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of respondents expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade, up four points from last year.
Economic risks show the largest collective increase in the two-year outlook.
Economic downturn and inflation risks both surged eight positions, to 11th and 21st respectively, while asset bubble burst rose seven to 18th position. Mounting debt concerns and potential asset bubbles, amid geoeconomic tensions, could trigger a new phase of volatility.
Technology, societies and the environment
Misinformation and disinformation ranks second on the two-year outlook while cyber insecurity ranks sixth.
Adverse outcomes of AI show the starkest trajectory, climbing from 30th in the two-year horizon to fifth in the 10-year horizon, reflecting anxiety about implications for labour markets, societies and security.
Societal polarizstion ranks 4th in 2026 and 3rd by 2028. Inequality is in seventh position in the two- and 10-year outlooks. Inequality was also selected as the most interconnected risk for a second consecutive year, fuelling other risks as social mobility falters.
Economic downturn is the second-most interconnected. Underlying these interconnections are concerns about cost-of-living pressures and K-shaped economies becoming entrenched.
With short-term concerns overtaking long-term objectives, environmental risks declined in ranking in the two-year outlook. Extreme weather dropped from second to fourth, pollution from sixth to ninth, while critical change to Earth systems and biodiversity loss fell seven and five positions respectively.
All environmental risks declined in severity score, representing an absolute shift, not just a relative one. Yet over the 10-year period, they remain the most severe – the top three are extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical change to Earth systems. Three-quarters of respondents expect a turbulent or stormy environmental outlook, the most negative of any category.