If 2025 was the year South Africa had to steel itself for a tsunami of crises, 2026 could well shape up to be the year the country starts coming up for air.
Locally, there was historic progress, marked by the stability of the Government of National Unity and a hard-won shift towards lower interest rates.
However, on the global front, it was a year of polycrises. Global trade was upset with sweeping tariffs, while the intersection of Middle East oil shocks and war, climate-driven disasters, and AGOA renewal uncertainty created a volatile backdrop for markets.
Despite the global upheaval, things are looking up locally: South Africa finally exited the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) greylist in October.
This month, the country was delisted from the European Union’s High-Risk category and AGOA has been extended for another three years.
Here’s what changed in 2025, and what they mean for South African investors in 2026:
Interest rates are down
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) cut rates throughout 2025, bringing the repo rate down to 6,75% by year-end and prime lending to 10,25%. While borrowers benefited from lower servicing costs, investors had to find new ways to grow their money in a market with lower returns.
Market consensus suggests another cut in early 2026, with the repo rate bottoming around 6,25%. After that, rates are expected to level out and stay there for the remainder of the year, while the SARB watches how global markets react to US trade policies.
Currency: Turning down the noise
The rand has started 2026 on a high note, reaching the R16.40/$ mark this month. This is partly thanks to the EU’s delisting, which makes international payments faster and cheaper.
However, despite these green flags for foreign direct investment, the US tariff regime acts like a heavy tax on our exporters, shrinking profit margins and devaluing local assets. To counter this, investors are likely to prioritise geographical diversification to shield their capital from single-market shocks.
As Harry Scherzer, CEO of Future Forex, explains: “Investors won’t want to leave all their eggs in one basket; just as you spread risk across asset classes, you must spread it across geographies.”
Property: Why ‘good governance’ pays
The property market is no longer about how big your garden is.Now, more than ever, it’s all about “location, location, location” – which determines whether your taps have water and your lights switch on.
Ahead of the municipal elections late this year, we are seeing a “governance premium”, so homes in areas well-managed by local governments are becoming more expensive.
Where infrastructure is crumbling, property prices are flat. Investors are now hunting for resilient houses, often smaller homes that are off-grid ready.
Offshore strategy: Seizing opportunities
Investors have stopped fleeing the rand out of fear. Instead, they are investing where they can access growth best, from the US’s AI and technology ecosystem to large-scale renewable energy projects in Europe and Asia.
As Scherzer puts it: “Offshore investing is about broadening your opportunities. It allows investors to participate in markets, industries and growth cycles that simply aren’t available in a single economy.”
Compliance: Raising the bar on consumer outcomes
The new Conduct of Financial Institutions (COFI) Bill is expected to come into force this year. It will judge financial institutions on whether clients understand what they are buying, whether products suit their needs, and whether outcomes are fair in practice.
At the same time, regulators are starting to clamp down on unlicensed crypto operators. With tightening rules, financial services will be required to commit to building trust, transparency and accountability.
South African investment was on the back foot for years, but 2026 isn’t about defence – it’s about chasing actual returns, whether that’s a house in Cape Town, an off-grid property in Gauteng, or access to industries that are yet to take off back home.
Ultimately, opportunities abound in selective markets if you’re informed and willing to look past assumptions about where value can – and cannot – be found.