Gold has soared past $5 000 for the first time, and could hit $6 000 by the end of the year as the current situation stands.
This is the prediction from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, who says the metal’s explosive rise signals a profound shift in how global investors perceive political risk, debt, and currency stability.
“Gold crossing $5 000 reflects a deep reassessment of global power, policy, and capital,” he says. “Investors are seeking certainty in an era where sovereign bonds and fiat currencies look increasingly fragile.”
The rally has unfolded against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tension and policy realignment.
“Markets price stability, and current policy direction introduces a level of unpredictability that pushes capital toward hard assets,” says Green. “Gold benefits when political signals create uncertainty about growth, inflation, and international co-operation.”
The surge also reflects mounting concern over government borrowing. Debt levels across major economies continue to rise, with fiscal expansion now entrenched as a political strategy. Investors are increasingly questioning whether bonds can protect purchasing power in such an environment.
“Gold is also reacting to a debt supercycle that shows few signs of reversal,” Green adds. “When governments lean heavily on borrowing, investors hedge against currency debasement and long-term inflation.”
Bond market stress has intensified this shift. Volatility in Japan’s government bond market and upward pressure on US and European yields have unsettled investors who once relied on sovereign debt as the foundation of portfolios.
“Bonds have been treated as risk-free for decades, and that assumption is being challenged,” says Green. “Gold is stepping back into its historical role as a store of value when trust in debt markets weakens.”
Central banks have amplified the rally through persistent accumulation. Official sector purchases have exceeded a thousand tonnes annually in recent years as countries diversify reserves away from the dollar and euro.
“Central banks are voting with their balance sheets. Their accumulation of gold signals a strategic pivot toward assets outside the Western currency system,” explains Green.
Private investors have followed. Exchange-traded funds, institutional portfolios, and retail buyers have all increased allocations as macro uncertainty intensifies.
“This alignment between central banks and private capital creates powerful momentum,” says Green. “When both sides of the market buy for structural reasons, price moves become self-reinforcing.”
Currency dynamics have further accelerated the rally. Concerns over fiscal discipline, political risk, and monetary policy credibility have weighed on major currencies, strengthening demand for assets perceived as independent of government control.
“Currencies are instruments of policy, and policy risk is elevated,” Green point out. “Gold provides insurance against policy errors.”
The current market behaviour also challenges traditional models. Gold is rising alongside higher yields, which historically would have weighed on the metal. Investors now prioritise systemic risk over opportunity cost.
“Gold is pricing systemic uncertainty rather than interest-rate differentials,” says Green. “Investors are hedging against structural instability in the financial system.”
Geopolitical competition is another driver. Defence spending, industrial policy, and strategic competition in AI and technology are pushing government budgets higher, reinforcing inflationary pressures and debt concerns.
“Strategic rivalry changes fiscal behaviour,” Green explains. “Governments prioritise power and security, and gold thrives in environments where fiscal discipline takes a back seat.”
Forecasts across the investment community increasingly point higher. Several major banks and analysts see prices moving toward $6 000 per ounce within months if current conditions persist, with longer-term scenarios extending significantly beyond.
“The path of least resistance remains higher while geopolitical risk, fiscal expansion, and currency uncertainty dominate.
“Markets aren’t currently pricing a return to the low-volatility regime of the past decade,” he adds.
For investors, the rally carries strategic implications. Traditional diversification built around equities and bonds is under pressure, while real assets and inflation hedges gain relevance.
“Portfolio construction requires reassessment,” says Green. “Gold is shifting from a tactical hedge to a strategic allocation.”
He argues that the surge also reflects a broader confidence signal. “Gold is the market’s trust barometer,” says Green. “A move of this magnitude shows investors questioning the durability of monetary and fiscal frameworks.”
The political economy backdrop reinforces the trend. Rising living costs, fiscal populism, and geopolitical fragmentation are reshaping investor behaviour and risk preferences.
“Markets respond to incentives and narratives. Current narratives favour fragmentation, fiscal strain, and strategic competition, which historically support hard assets.”
Volatility is likely to persist, and gold’s role as portfolio insurance will remain prominent as macro uncertainty continues.
“This rally represents a structural shift rather than a speculative spike,” says Green. “Gold is reasserting itself as a core asset in an era dominated by policy risk and geopolitical tension.”
He concludes: “The $5 000 milestone marks a beginning rather than an endpoint. We believe $6 000 is not unrealistic by the end of the year.”