South Africa’s labour market is expected to show only modest change when the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) results are released tomorrow (17 February 2026) – and behind the headline numbers, many young people are still struggling to access work and training opportunities.
Youth unemployment (ages 15–24) is projected to remain very high, with approximately 40% to 45% young South Africans unemployed, leaving millions of young people without jobs or formal training opportunities.
New projections from the Bureau of Market Research (BMR) reveal that while headline unemployment figures may appear broadly stable, the underlying reality remains challenging.
The number of unemployed South Africans under the official definition is expected to rise from 8,007-million in Q3 2025 to approximately 8,023-million in Q4 2025, with the unemployment rate (according to the official definition) projected to remain unchanged at 31,9% – signalling a labour market that is not yet generating jobs at the pace required to absorb new entrants.
Under the expanded definition, which includes discouraged work seekers, unemployment is expected to increase from 11,488-million in Q3:2025 to 11,569-million people in Q4:2025, pushing the expanded unemployment rate to 40,3%.
A generation whose potential must be unlocked
“For many young South Africans, unemployment is not just an economic statistic – it is a daily lived reality,” says Dr Memuna Williams, founder and CEO of Empowering Sustainable Change.
“When young people leave school without relevant skills, work exposure or pathways into entrepreneurship, the risk is that talent goes unused and confidence in the future erodes.”
With nearly one in two young people unable to find work or training, and an additional one million young South Africans expected to exit the schooling system by the end of 2026, the pressure on an already strained labour market is intensifying.
Dr Williams, a specialist in bridging the gap between education, skills development, and entrepreneurship, believes the latest statistics should be read as a call to deepen and accelerate collaborative action.
“We cannot measure success only by small movements in national aggregates while so many young people are still waiting for their first real opportunity,” says Williams. “Inclusive growth depends on whether young people are equipped and supported to participate in the economy.”
Recognising progress – and the need to go further
Recent improvements in energy availability and early gains in logistics reform have helped stabilise the economic outlook, contributing to a gradual improvement in growth prospects and a more supportive environment for job creation and investment.
“Important steps have been taken to address long‑standing constraints in energy and logistics, and those efforts are starting to show results,” notes Dr Williams.
“The task now is to build on this foundation – by sustaining these reforms and pairing them with equally focused investments in skills, entrepreneurship and local ecosystems that can turn macro‑level progress into real opportunities for young people.”
While BMR projections indicate that unemployment may decline only gradually to around 30% by 2028, Dr Williams emphasises that this trajectory can be improved if all partners – government, business, civil society and education providers – work together more intentionally.
“Economic growth is essential, but it will not be sufficient on its own,” she adds. “We also need targeted investment in skills development, entrepreneurship ecosystems and alternative pathways to earning and learning.”
Skills and entrepreneurship: from concept to capability
Drawing on insights from global education and leadership discussions, including recent engagements at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Dr Williams argues that the future of work is changing faster than traditional systems can respond.
“The world is moving toward skills‑based economies shaped by technology, entrepreneurship and adaptability,” she explains.
“Young people need practical capabilities: problem‑solving, creativity, digital literacy, green and technical skills, and entrepreneurial thinking – alongside formal qualifications.”
She highlights digital and technology, technical, vocational and green‑economy and entrepreneurship and micro‑enterprise skills as three areas where support and collaboration with educational institutions, the private sector and ecosystem partners can make a tangible difference.
Turning statistics into solutions
While employment numbers are expected to increase modestly from 17,055-million in in Q3:2025 to 17,103-million employed individuals Q4:2025, the absorption rate is projected to decline slightly, reinforcing concerns that the economy is not yet creating jobs fast enough for a growing working‑age population.
“Empowering Sustainable Change exists to help turn national priorities into practical programmes that equip young people to shape their own futures,” says Dr Williams. “That means co‑designing initiatives with communities, employers and education partners, and making entrepreneurship and employability support more visible and accessible.”
A shared responsibility and a decisive moment
As South Africa awaits the official release of its latest unemployment statistics, Dr Williams stresses that stability in headline numbers should not overshadow the country’s collective opportunity to do more.
“The data confirms both the scale of the challenge and the importance of the progress already under way,” she says. “We are not just dealing with a cyclical slowdown – we are working through a structural youth employment challenge that will require consistency, partnership and innovation over many years.
“The real question is how quickly and how collaboratively we can scale solutions that give young South Africans skills, confidence and a fair chance to participate in the economy. Government has a critical leadership role, but this is a shared responsibility – for business, educators, communities and organisations like ours.
“South Africa has the talent and the policy foundations to succeed. Our task now is to translate that potential into pathways – so that the next set of statistics tells a different story for the country’s young people.”