Bitcoin and gold are currently sending different signals as both build a case for gains, predicts Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group.
His bullish predictions come as Bitcoin trades around $74 000 to $75 000 – near recent highs – while gold holds close to $5 000 an ounce after easing from earlier peaks, even as geopolitical tensions intensify in the Middle East and oil remains above $100 per barrel.
“Safe havens are holding firm, but the response lacks the intensity usually associated with rising geopolitical risk, while digital assets are holding strong,” says Green. “Markets don’t sustain conflicting signals for long.
“Either liquidity continues to support risk assets, or rising geopolitical and inflation pressures force a stronger move toward protection,” he adds. “The divergence reflects two dominant forces shaping markets.
“On one side, global liquidity and sustained capital flows are supporting risk assets, including Bitcoin. On the other, rising geopolitical tension and energy-driven inflation risks are reinforcing the case for gold.”
Bitcoin’s resilience stands out, he says. Prices dipped during the initial escalation of the conflict, but recovered quickly and have stabilised near current levels. The move suggests investors continue to engage with digital assets despite the geopolitical backdrop, supported by ongoing demand and favourable liquidity conditions.
Gold is responding on a different timeline. Its role as a store of value tends to strengthen as risks move from potential to realised.
For now, markets appear to be treating the current conflict as contained, which helps explain the more measured response. This leaves scope for a stronger move if conditions deteriorate or if elevated energy prices feed more clearly into inflation.
Green says both assets are aligned in direction, even if the drivers differ.
“Bitcoin is reflecting confidence in liquidity and continued capital inflows,” he says. “Gold is reflecting the risk that is building beneath the surface.”
Energy markets remain central to the outlook. Oil above $100 per barrel is feeding into inflation expectations, which supports the case for gold. At the same time, easing bond yields and resilient equity markets are reinforcing the liquidity backdrop that continues to underpin Bitcoin.
“Investors are not choosing between risk and protection,” Green says. “They’re allocating to both, which is why Bitcoin is holding firm and gold is building support at elevated levels.”
If geopolitical tensions remain contained, he adds, Bitcoin is likely to continue benefiting from supportive liquidity conditions and sustained demand. Gold can also move higher in that environment as investors gradually increase defensive exposure.
If tensions escalate further, the adjustment is likely to come through acceleration rather than reversal. Gold would be expected to strengthen more rapidly as safe-haven demand intensifies, while Bitcoin’s path would depend more on liquidity conditions – with structural demand continuing to provide support.
“Markets don’t tolerate conflicting signals indefinitely,” Green says. “Either risk appetite continues to dominate, or macro pressures force a shift toward protection. Currently, we believe that both pathways support higher prices for Bitcoin and gold, just for different reasons.
“The divergence between the two assets reflects timing rather than disagreement,” Green says. “One is advancing on liquidity and momentum, while the other is building a foundation for a stronger move as underlying risks develop.”