South Africa’s fuel retailers recorded the largest spike in diesel stop volumes in recent years in the week of 18 to 21 March, two full weeks before April’s expected record price adjustment, according to Lightstone’s analysis of anonymised Tracker mobility data.
Lightstone Retail, a data and analytics business serving the South African fuel retail sector, said the surge in demand had been triggered by the conflict in Iran and subsequent disruptions to fuel supply chains.
“By 18 March, consumers had faced weeks of escalating war coverage, an initial March price hike, media forecasts of R5 – R10-per-litre increases in April, and MD of Lightstone Retail.
“This ‘noise’ was followed by empty pumps at some fuel stations, accelerating anxiety and bulk purchasing.”
While demand had already risen sharply, there was uncertainty whether forecourt stock levels and upstream supply chains could absorb volumes at a record scale.
Lightstone Retail tracks vehicle stops at fuel stations, the fuel type of each vehicle (diesel or petrol) and the demographic profile of the customer.
This independent market view monitors stop volumes, customer behaviour and brand performance across the national network at a uniquely granular level.
Lightstone said the hedging was anticipatory, market-wide and visible two full weeks before the April announcement.
“The data showed commercial operators responded earlier and more decisively than any comparable period in recent years. Diesel stops surged by 7% to 10% across major chains in the 18 to 21 March window while petrol gains were less pronounced between 2% to 5%, reflecting a structural difference between bulk storage capacity versus the limitations of a private motorist’s tank,” says Tamaryn Shalom, head of product and innovation at Lightstone Retail.
Every fuel chain recorded higher diesel stops on 19/20 March when measured against the prior Thursday/Friday, confirming a systemic response to the looming price increase.
Sasol and Total Energies led the jump in percentage terms while Engen, the market’s highest-volume retailer by absolute stops showed a modest increase, suggesting its customers had filled up earlier given the elevated Monday and Tuesday volumes.
April’s projected increase will push fuel prices to two‑year highs, with the pace of change – rather than the level – setting it apart. This was an estimate pending where oil prices and the rand settle before month end.
Historically, fuel price movements have had little impact on total distances travelled, with daily volumes holding flat between 390-million and 430-million km per day over the past two years.
Notably, a growing vehicle parc has offset a longer-term decline in distance travelled per vehicle, meaning individual South Africans are driving less but more of them are on the road.
While this suggests overall network demand may remain resilient, the scale and speed of the April adjustment is without precedent in that period, and its full effect on travel behaviour remains to be seen.
For fuel retailers, understanding the interplay between a growing vehicle parc and declining per-vehicle distances will be critical to accurate network demand planning in the months ahead.
Lightstone data also reveals a consistent behavioural pattern around monthly price adjustments: when prices are set to rise, Tuesday stop volumes surge as drivers fill up before the Wednesday change takes effect.
With April’s adjustment expected to be the largest single month increase on record, the Tuesday before 1 April is likely to produce the most pronounced pre-price spike the data has ever captured, a critical planning signal for retailers managing forecourt stock and staffing.