As economic volatility, climate risk, and geopolitical shifts continue to reshape the global business environment, South African organisations are under pressure to make critical decisions amid persistent uncertainty.
New analysis from PwC highlights how quantum computing, particularly through hybrid quantum classical approaches, is emerging as a potential tool to help organisations better quantify, simulate, and manage uncertainty at scale.
This pressure is supported by global indicators. Measures such as the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) have been at their highest levels since records began, reinforcing warnings from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that uncertainty has become a structural feature of the global economy.
For South African businesses, this is reflected in climate‑related risks, energy and infrastructure constraints, fluctuating commodity prices, and intensifying financial and insurance pressures.
“Uncertainty is no longer an occasional disruption; it is the context in which all major business decisions are now made. The organisations that will succeed are not those that try to eliminate uncertainty, but those that build stronger capabilities to understand it, quantify it and act on it with confidence,” says Nico Vlok, tech strategy and architecture leader at PwC South Africa.
Turning uncertainty into insight
Across industries such as financial services, insurance, energy, mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, risk modelling and probability forecasting play a critical role in decision‑making.
Techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations are widely used to estimate outcomes and assess exposure, including measures such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR).
However, as economic systems become more complex and risk more correlated, classical computing methods increasingly face computational limits, particularly when modelling rare but high‑impact events.
The scale of this challenge is reflected globally. In 2024, natural catastrophe events resulted in an estimated $318-billion in economic losses, of which only 43% were insured, leaving a global protection gap of approximately $181-billion. Similar dynamics are expected to intensify in emerging markets, including South Africa.
Classical approaches remain essential but are increasingly stretched by the scale and complexity of today’s risks.
This is where quantum computing becomes relevant, not as a replacement for existing methods, but as a potential complement that could enhance how uncertainty is modelled and managed over time.
Why quantum computing matters now
Quantum computing is built on mathematical principles that explicitly deal with probability and uncertainty. While quantum uncertainty is fundamentally different from economic uncertainty, the underlying mathematical frameworks offer new ways to model complex, high‑dimensional systems that are difficult to simulate using classical computers alone.
In the near term, hybrid quantum‑classical approaches are viewed as the most practical pathway. In such models, quantum processors are applied selectively to specific, high‑value calculations, such as estimating rare‑event probabilities, while classical systems manage data processing, governance, and validation.
One example is Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE), a technique that could theoretically reduce the computational effort required to achieve high statistical confidence in risk estimates.
“We are still in the early stages of quantum computing, and significant technical challenges remain. However, hybrid approaches allow organisations to start exploring where incremental value might emerge, without waiting for fully fault‑tolerant quantum hardware,” says Vlok.
Building quantum readiness in SA
Quantum computing is not a short‑term fix, but a long‑term capability that requires preparation well before the technology reaches full maturity.
Globally, leading organisations are already investing in quantum literacy, identifying high‑value use cases, and running controlled experiments within strong governance frameworks.
For South African organisations, early engagement could support more resilient decision‑making in areas such as climate risk management, capital planning, supply‑chain resilience and long‑term investment strategy.
Vlok emphasises that quantum readiness is about people, processes, and problem selection, not just technology. Organisations that start building understanding and capability now will be better positioned to respond to future shocks, rather than reacting after the fact.
As uncertainty becomes the defining reality of business, innovation in forecasting and risk management will be critical.
“Quantum computing may not remove uncertainty, but it has the potential to help organisations navigate it more effectively, and that could make a meaningful difference for South African business resilience in the years ahead,” concludes Vlok.