South Africa may face both risks and opportunities as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics accelerate a global economic shift that could redefine work, income, and human purpose over the next decade.
This is according to new strategic research by Hywel George, director of investments at Old Mutual Investments which examines the long‑term implications of rapid advances in AI and robotics for economies around the world with important relevance for South Africa.
The research explores a potential transition from today’s task specific AI to more advanced systems capable of performing a wide range of cognitive work, alongside robotics that could increasingly replicate human physical labour.
“For South Africa, this conversation is especially urgent,” says George. “We already face high unemployment, deep inequality and a large youth population entering a labour market under pressure. AI doesn’t create these challenges, but it could amplify them if we’re not prepared.”
Implications for South African jobs
The research suggests that cognitive roles such as administrative work, basic data processing and entry level professional roles are among the most exposed to AI disruption. This is particularly relevant in South Africa, where services, back office processing and entry level white collar jobs form a key part of urban employment.
While roles requiring complex judgement, creativity, care and hands‑on human interaction are expected to be more resilient in the near term, the research cautions that no sector is fully shielded as technology advances.
“One of the biggest risks for South Africa is the erosion of entry level and junior roles,” George says. “These jobs are often the first rung on the ladder for young people. If that rung is undermined, social mobility becomes even harder.”
Beyond jobs: inequality, identity, social stability
The research emphasises that work is more than a source of income, it shapes identity, dignity and social belonging. Displacement therefore raises concerns not only about employment, but about social cohesion and long‑term stability.
South Africa’s already high inequality could intensify if ownership of advanced AI systems becomes concentrated among a small number of global firms and investors.
“Technology can produce enormous wealth,” says George. “But without thoughtful governance, that wealth risks becoming even more concentrated both globally and locally.”
From scarcity to abundance – with an SA twist
If AI and robotics significantly reduce production costs, the research suggests that the price of many goods and services such as education, basic diagnostics and digital services could fall over time. However, scarcity will persist in areas particularly relevant to South Africa, including:
- Energy, especially given existing infrastructure constraints
- Minerals, which will remain in high demand
- Land, which remains finite
Human attention, trust and community, increasingly valuable in a digital world
“In a country where energy is already a strategic constraint, AI doesn’t just raise economic questions, it raises infrastructure and policy questions,” George notes.
Rethinking social policy and the social contract
The research outlines a likely progression in government responses globally, from initial denial of displacement risks to greater social spending and, eventually, debates around universal income or social dividends linked to AI productivity. For South Africa, the research suggests early and proactive policy thinking will be critical.
“The danger is waiting until social pressure forces reactive decisions,” says George. “We need forward looking conversations about skills, education, distribution and the role of the state in a world where work may no longer be the primary source of income for many.”
The bigger question: human purpose in an AI-driven world
Ultimately, the research argues that the most profound challenge is not technological, but human. If machines increasingly perform both cognitive and physical work, societies must grapple with new definitions of contribution, dignity and purpose, especially in countries like South Africa, where work has often been central to social inclusion.
“The future is not just about efficiency or growth,” George concludes. “It’s about whether we can build an economy and a society that values people for more than their economic output.”