Reflecting mounting economic pressure, the PayInc Economic Index declined in April 2026, signalling the impact of the fuel price adjustments on households and businesses.
The index tracks the value of all electronic transactions cleared through PayInc, together with a wholesale cash component.
“The PayInc Economic Index declined by 0,5% month-on-month in April 2026 to an index level of 104.8, signalling some moderation in economic activity despite remaining 6.1% higher than a year ago,” says Shergeran Naidoo, head of stakeholder engagements at PayInc.
The index showed softer transaction activity across several payment streams during April. Volume growth across the Real Time Clearing, PayShap and EFT credit transactions contracted, while all payment streams – except DebiCheck – recorded declines in transaction values.
After reaching 195,5-million transactions in March, the number of transactions cleared through PayInc declined to 186,3-million in April, although still 11% higher than a year ago. The nominal value of electronic transactions similarly eased to R1,367-trillion from R1,475-trillion in March 2026.
The moderation comes amid growing uncertainty around the economic impact of the ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, that has led to significant fuel price increases introduced since April 2026. Cumulative increases of R6.29/litre for petrol and R12.60/litre for diesel over the past two months have placed additional pressure on households and businesses, with broader inflationary effects expected across the economy.
“Consumers and businesses are already responding to the pressure of higher transport and fuel costs, which is likely to influence spending patterns in the months ahead,” says independent economist Elize Kruger. “While the economy continues to demonstrate resilience in some sectors, the current environment points to a more cautious consumer and business outlook.”
Despite softer transaction activity reflected in the PayInc Economic Index, other leading economic indicators continued to show resilience during April.
According to figures released by Naamsa, total vehicle sales increased by 13% year-on-year in April 2026, while new car sales advanced by 14,3%. Year-to-date vehicle sales growth reached 12,5%, following strong momentum recorded in 2025.
The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI®) also improved to 51.6 in April from 50.8 in March, reflecting the strongest expansion in private sector business conditions in 44 months. The seasonally adjusted Absa PMI similarly rose above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since September 2025, increasing to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March.
However, concerns remain around the sustainability of the recovery, particularly as inflationary pressures intensify. Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data for potential second-round price effects stemming from higher fuel costs.
Consumer behaviour is already shifting in response to these pressures. According to data released by Discovery Insure, motorists reduced fuel consumption by 35% during April, while trips declined by 10% and total distance travelled fell by 9%. With transport costs escalating, expect weaker discretionary spending and softer demand for non-essential goods and services in the coming months.
“While a notable over-recovery at the pumps suggests that the diesel price could drop in June, providing some near-term relief should current conditions remain stable, the broader economic outlook for 2026 remains subdued,” says Kruger. “South Africa’s unemployment rate remains elevated at 32.7% in the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing the challenging operating environment facing households and businesses.”