China’s mobile services market is set for steady, but modest revenue growth through 2030 as rising mobile data service revenues offset the continued decline in voice and messaging revenues, says GlobalData.
The research group’s China Mobile Communications Forecast (Q4 2025) reveals that the country’s mobile services revenue is expected to grow at a modest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1,7% from $143-billion in 2025 to $156-billion in 2030.
“Mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 23% over the forecast period due to the increasing consumer shift towards OTT/Internet-based communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU levels,” says Sarwat Zeeshan, telecom analyst at GlobalData. “Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 4,8% between 2025 and 2030. Rising smartphone usage, increasing consumption of mobile data services – most importantly with increasing adoption of higher ARPU-yielding premium 5G service plans – will underpin this shift, reinforcing data-driven growth as the primary engine of the country’s evolving telecom landscape.”
The average monthly mobile data usage is forecast to increase from 15,1GB in 2025 to 23,1GB in 2030 driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over high-speed mobile networks and on the back of data-centric packages offered by telcos.
5G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2030, thanks to the ongoing 5G network modernisation efforts by major MNOs, greater availability and affordability of 5G smartphones, and telcos offering premium 5G plans.
The evolution and expansion of 5G networks will also help drive the adoption of M2M/IoT services in the country as companies explore new IoT/M2M use cases enabled by 5G networks. M2M/IoT subscriptions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7,5% over the forecast period.
“China Mobile led the mobile services market in China in 2025 and will retain its leadership position over the forecast period through its widespread mobile network coverage, ongoing investments in next-generation connectivity, and strong focus on 5G network modernisation, increasing network capacity, and broader service offerings for consumers and enterprises,” says Zeeshan.