An update on international air traffic presented at the 2026 IATA AGM and World Air Transport Summit in Rio de Janiero states that Africa’s hub carriers are seeing the strongest global growth in traffic as it re-routes to avoid the Middle East.
However, the region’s profitability is expected to weaken as a result of cost-side vulnerabilities – particularly regarding the supply and price of fuel. Combined with typically lower aircraft utilisation and weaker balance sheets, these factors will cap the revenue upside from shifting traffic flows, resulting in a lower expected net profit margin in 2026.
Any gains are likely to be concentrated among the limited number of hub carriers with established connectivity linking Africa to Europe and Asia. Smaller and more fragmented operators are expected to bear the brunt of the challenging operating environment.
Structural constraints continue.
Weak infrastructure, fragmented airspace, and limited cross-border coordination reduce network efficiency and raise operating costs. In addition, limited financial capacity and access to capital restrict fleet expansion and network development.