Global trade is set to reach a record $33-trillion in 2024, according to the latest Global Trade Update by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). This $1-trillion increase, reflecting 3,3% annual growth, highlights resilience in global trade.
Developing economies, traditionally strong drivers of global trade, faced headwinds in 2024, with imports contracting 1% and South-South trade falling by the same margin in the third quarter. In contrast, developed economies led Q3 growth, with stable demand driving a 3% rise in imports and 2% in exports.
Despite these challenges, opportunities remain for developing economies to capitalize on high-growth sectors. ICT and apparel trade surged, with increases of 13% and 14%, respectively, in the third quarter 2024. This growth underscores the potential for diversification and entry into value-added industries. Stable global growth forecasts and easing inflation also present a chance to build resilience in 2025.
While ICT and apparel showed strong momentum, traditional sectors critical to developing economies faced declines. Energy trade fell 2% for the quarter and 7% for the year, while metals trade contracted by 3% both quarterly and annually. Automotive trade dropped 3% in Q3 but is expected to end the year with modest 4% growth.
UNCTAD urges developing economies to adopt targeted policies that enhance trade diversification and invest in high-value sectors to mitigate risks.
“Trade remains a cornerstone of sustainable development,” says UNCTAD secretary-general Rebeca Grynspan. “To seize the opportunities in 2025, developing economies need coordinated support to navigate uncertainty, reduce dependencies, and strengthen their links to global markets.”