The BankservAfrica Economic Transactions Index (BETI), which tracks the value of all electronic transactions cleared through BankservAfrica at seasonally adjusted real prices, continues to reflect South Africa’s underlying economic resilience amid prevailing risks and financial strain.
“The BETI increased for the third consecutive month to reach an index level of 139.3 in July 2025, 0,2% up on June’s level,” says Shergeran Naidoo, BankservAfrica’s head of stakeholder engagements.
The BETI is up 1.9% year-on-year, signalling that the Q2 uptick in economic activity is extending into Q3, albeit with slightly moderated momentum.
“The economy continues to demonstrate resilience, though significant challenges and risks persist. In particular, uncertainty around the impact of US import tariffs – both on South Africa and the global economy – weighs on business confidence and investment sentiment, posing a potential downside risk to growth forecasts,” says independent economist Elize Kruger. “While several other economies secured more favourable US import tariffs than initially announced, South Africa’s non-commodity exports remain subject to a 30% tariff, effective 8 August – with negotiations still appearing to be ongoing.”
Despite the ongoing challenges and uncertainties, the economy’s resilience, as reflected in the improved BETI over the past three months, is testament to corporate excellence, diversity in the economy and the power of tailwinds currently at play.
“Management teams in corporate South Africa have stood the test of times, steering companies through the troubled waters of political transition, crisis periods like Covid and operating in an environment crippled by load shedding. There’s no doubt South African companies will rise to the challenge posed by higher US tariffs, working to mitigate the impact through strategic adjustments, supported by government initiatives — even as negotiations continue,” says Kruger.
Local structural tailwinds continue to cushion the economy against global pressures. Inflation remains well-contained, with June headline inflation at 3% — the bottom of the SARB’s 3% to 6% target band — with the 2025 average forecast tracking at around 3,5%.
“The favourable inflation environment has created scope for the South African Reserve Bank to cut interest rates at its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting, alleviating some pressure on households and corporates.
“Furthermore, an additional perk of the low inflation environment, is the key role it plays in supporting the recovery of salary earners’ purchasing power. With average salary increases expected to be between 5% and 6%, 2025 will be the second consecutive year of real increases in salaries, which should support consumer spending.
“Furthermore, the real GDP growth forecast for 2025 has stabilised at around 1% compared to 0,6% in 2024. However, this growth rate remains below population growth, highlighting ongoing pressure for South Africans.”
The number of transactions cleared through BankservAfrica reached an all-time high of 177,5-million in July, according to Naidoo, surpassing the previous record high of 176,3-million registered in May 2025, and up by 8,9% on a year ago. The standardised nominal value of transactions moderated slightly to R1,338-trillion in July versus R1,361-trillion in June 2025. All electronic payment streams recorded higher value of transactions during July, except DebiCheck.
All other timeous economic indicators posted stronger readings in July. Naamsa revealed that the strong performance of the vehicle sales market continued robustly in July 2025. Total vehicle sales showed an improvement of 15,6% y/y in July 2024, with year-to-date sales up by 13,9% compared to a year earlier, while new car sales in July grew by a notable 20,1% y/y and year-to-date were a notable 21,1% ahead.
The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in expansionary territory with an index level of 50.3 in July, slightly up on the 50.1 in June. Encouragingly, after eighth consecutive months in contractionary territory, the seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index, a reflection of the prospects in the manufacturing sector, also rose to 50.8 index points in July vs 48.5 in June, the first expansion signal since October 2024.
“The improvement in economic activity during July appears to have been broad-based, with gains observed across multiple sectors. This is a positive signal for underlying economic momentum and resilience,” says Kruger.