A global reset is unfolding across AI and tech markets as investors confront the limits of a model that has powered equity gains for two years.
This warning from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, follows four sessions of heavy selling across world indices, with the Nikkei sliding 3% and major US benchmarks closing firmly lower, signal that enthusiasm alone can no longer support valuations that rest on flawless execution.
The shift is accelerating ahead of Nvidia’s critical earnings report tomorrow (19 November, widely viewed as the market’s most important moment of the quarter.
Green believes the next few weeks will set the tone for 2026.
“AI has been the engine of global markets for two years, but the phase of unchecked optimism is giving way to a sharper focus on resilience.
“Investors want proof that spending translates into dependable earnings growth. The companies that deliver that clarity will lead the next stage.”
The market’s repricing reflects concerns that have been building throughout the latest earnings cycle.
Tech giants produced a series of divergent results, underscoring the sector’s split between firms that can convert AI infrastructure into immediate returns and those relying on longer-dated promises.
Alphabet and Amazon strengthened their reputations as disciplined operators, while Meta and Microsoft encountered swift pushback as higher capital commitments unsettled shareholders. Tesla’s weaker profitability added to the unease, and Nvidia’s report now stands at the centre of the recalibration.
“Investors are assessing strategy in real time,” says Green.
“They’re rewarding companies that show control over investment and demonstrate that AI adoption is enhancing margins. The market is far less forgiving when spending outpaces revenue potential.”
Nvidia’s results represent the most consequential test yet.
Expectations for another year-on-year surge in revenue and earnings have pushed the valuation into territory where any deviation, even a small one, could alter sentiment fast. The company’s Blackwell platform, the absorption of earlier Hopper supply, sovereign AI contracts and the pace of hyperscaler demand will all influence how investors judge the durability of AI spending through next year.
Green notes: “The bar set for Nvidia is extraordinary. The reaction will not hinge on scale alone. Investors want to see whether profitability is expanding in line with investment.
“This is the benchmark for the entire AI complex.”
Policy shifts under US President Donald Trump add another layer of scrutiny. Washington’s export controls continue to reshape access to advanced computing in China, while domestic priorities around supply-chain security and technological self-sufficiency are influencing capital-allocation strategies across the industry.
These dynamics make Nvidia’s forward guidance especially significant, as it will shape expectations for global AI investment through 2026.
“The policy environment is evolving quickly,” says Green. “Companies operating at the core of advanced computing must show how they adapt. Investors will study every signal that reveals how firms intend to align growth plans with geopolitical realities.”
The recent rout in global equities reveals how sensitive markets have become to any sign of overstretch. Wall Street’s pullback, led by renewed pressure on AI-linked names, highlights the fragility beneath headline gains.
The S&P 500 slipping below a key technical level on Monday (17 November) reinforced the idea that investors are reassessing risk appetite after an extended period of concentration in a handful of tech leaders.
Green emphasises that discipline will shape outcomes next year. “AI remains transformational, but the market is changing fast.
“Selectivity has moved from advantage to necessity.
“Investors who understand the distinction between scale and sustainable returns will be best-positioned for the opportunities emerging on the other side of this adjustment.”