After six months of consecutive gains, the PayInc Economic Index, measuring the value of all electronic transactions processed through PayInc, levelled off in November 2025 but stayed higher than a year ago.
Continued resilience and improving economic indicators point to encouraging developments for the economy.
“The PayInc Economic Index held steady at 103.1 in November, unchanged from October. Despite this pause, the index is still 3,5% higher than a year ago and has grown by an average of 2,9% year-to-date, nearly double the 1,5% registered in 2024,” says Shergeran Naidoo, head of stakeholder engagements at PayInc.
The latest figures confirm the economy’s resilience despite ongoing challenges and uncertainties; a trend also reflected in the third-quarter GDP growth numbers.
Reflecting on 2025, independent economist Elize Kruger believes there were a growing number of positive developments in the economy.
“From exiting the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list to the first credit rating upgrade in 20 years, the progress on structural reforms, an improvement in fiscal metrics and moderate inflation, the year turned out better than initially expected,” she says.
“While it will take time – given the lags in the economy – before these translate into a higher economic growth trajectory, the building blocks for improvement have surely been laid.”
She explains that the progress stacking will likely ignite a positive confidence feedback loop.
“At a company level, when management starts to believe that the tide has turned for the better, improved confidence levels will drive investment decisions, which in time will contribute to higher growth rates,” says Kruger.
“Likewise, if household confidence increases, driven by multiple years of real earnings growth, a softer inflation environment, lower interest rates and a belief that the economy is on the mend, it will boost consumer spending, especially expenditure on higher value items such as cars and housing, that are typically done on a longer-term credit commitment.”
Encouragingly, confidence has started to move in a positive direction. Following two consecutive declines, the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index rose by five points to 44 in Q4 2025. The FNB/BER Building Confidence Index rose to a joint 10-year high of 43 in Q4 2025, the confidence among new vehicle dealers increased to an index level of 58, the highest since 2021, while retail and wholesale trade confidence indicators both improved in Q4 to 43 and 42, respectively.
On the consumer front, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) recovered from -13 in Q3 2025 to -9 in Q4. Cumulatively, and over time, higher confidence levels will support higher economic activity levels.
Other economic indicators were mixed during November. According to Naamsa, total vehicle sales improved by 12,5% y/y in November with year-to-date sales up by 15,4% compared to a year earlier, while new car sales in November grew by 11% and year-to-date were still 20,1% ahead.
The S&P Global South Africa Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in contractionary territory with a 49.0 index level in November. The seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped by a steep 7.2 index points to 42.0 in November 2025, from 49.2 in October.
The manufacturing sector’s performance remains under pressure, with demand generally sluggish, complicated by the rise in US trade tariffs and logistical challenges.
After reaching an all-time high of 188,9-million in October, the number of transactions cleared through PayInc in November subsided to 179,9-million but was still up by 8,1% on a year ago, according to Naidoo.
Volume declines were recorded across all payment streams except PayShap. The cash supply to banks, now also included in the PayInc Economic Index moderated in November, while the nominal value of electronic transactions also slowed to R1,37-trillion in November compared to R1,46-trillion in October 2025.
“The resilience reflected in the PayInc Economic Index throughout 2025 is encouraging, as is the broader improvement in confidence levels across the economy,” says Kruger. “While it is still early days and recognising that confidence takes time to translate into higher activity, the emerging trends are positive. It is often said that a notable improvement in confidence in an economy is by far the cheapest form of economic stimulus.”