Small South African exporters are watching how the the US Supreme Court of Appeals will rule on tariffs, most likely to happen later today.
Small South African exporters were hit hard by US tariffs during the last quarter of 2025, according to the SME Export Index compiled by South African international shipping platform TUNL and based on a cohort of 1 850 companies.
Craig Lowman, TUNL CEO and co-founder, says: “Compared to Q2 2025, before the tariffs came into effect, the US-bound gross monthly volume (GMV) was down 22,8%.”
Christmas sales would normally increase volumes of shipments to the US significantly, but, as a result of the tariffs, volumes have sharply declined.
Lowman adds: “ A ‘normal’ fourth quarter is usually up by at least 20% from previous quarters. In effect, this represents close to a 50% swing against what SMEs would ordinarily expect at this time of year.”
By contrast, exports to the rest of the world followed their typical seasonal pattern, with non-US markets recording an 11,3% increase in Q4 volumes in line with normal year-end demand. This divergence underscores how uniquely disruptive the US tariff changes have been for small exporters.
“The trend is now clear,” says Aretha Cooper, chief operating officer of TUNL. “Local SMEs have effectively lost access to the US export market, even as demand elsewhere remains healthy. While some businesses are exploring opportunities in the EU and other regions, many are struggling to withstand the sudden loss of their largest market and are at risk of closing if the tariff situation isn’t resolved soon.
“There is real hope that today’s ruling will provide relief — even if it simply restores a workable de minimis threshold, relieving parcels valued below $800 from the new tariffs.”