African airlines saw increased numbers of both passengers and cargo during January 2026, but it is still unclear how numbers will be impacted by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf.
International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) latest analyses of the passenger market, for the month of January, saw an 11,7% year-on-year increase in demand, with capacity increased by 10,1% year-on-year.
The load factor (percentage of capacity taken up by the market) was 77,4%, representing a more than 1,1 percentage point increase compared to January 2025.
Africa accounts for 2,2% of the total global airline passenger market.
Global figures for January 2026 reveal that demand rose 3,8% compared to January 2025. Airlines saw a 3.5% increase in capacity year-on-year.
They achieved an 82% load factor, representing a +0,2 percentage point increase compared to January 2025 – a record high for a January.
Schedule data indicates a further 5,2% increase in global seat capacity by this month (March 2026). This would be the fastest expansion since April 2024.
Commenting on the latest developments in the Middle East, IATA’s director-general, Willie Walsh, says: “Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities.
“In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.”
In the air cargo market, for January 2026, African airlines saw an 18,2% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in January – the strongest growth of all regions – plus a 6,5% year-on-year increase in capacity.
Demand for air cargo between Africa and Asia grew 41,6% with seven consecutive months of growth and now represents 1,3% of the air cargo industry.
Africa accounts for 2,1% of the total global air cargo market
By comparison, globally, airlines saw demand rise 5,6% compared to January 2025, and a 3,6% increase in capacity year-on-year.
Walsh comments: “The resilience of air cargo will continue to be tested in the coming months. In addition to the long-running uncertainties of evolving US trade policies, the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East will both weigh heavy on global supply chains”