The global energy landscape is being reshaped by geopolitics and competing priorities of affordability, reliability, competitiveness and decarbonisation.
And, as the war the Middle East evolves, it could cause unprecedented volatility in energy markets.
Look Forward: Energy Futures from S&P Global brings together analysis from across S&P Global’s divisions to help leaders navigate the complex, multidimensional forces shaping energy markets.
It is a pivotal moment as the global energy system navigates ongoing challenges amidst historic geopolitical uncertainty, says Dave Ernsberger, president of S&P Global Energy.
“We’re seeing the rapid growth of AI and the enormous energy required to power it driving an unprecedented convergence between the technology and energy sectors, and an urgent need to secure reliable and sustainable energy.
“Amidst this rapidly evolving global landscape, it is more important than ever to bring together our deep sector expertise, rigorous data and on-the-ground market knowledge to our clients.”
Key findings from the study reveal:
- The Multidimensional Energy Future: The global energy system is charting new frontiers as it enters the era of AI. According to S&P Global Energy estimates, data center power demand worldwide could grow 12% to 16% annually over 2025 to 2030. The energy landscape has seen significant shifts in the last 12 months, with power demand accelerating, global energy and climate policies shifting, and energy companies reassessing their portfolio and investment strategies.
- Electricity Affordability at a Crossroads: Electricity demand is growing faster than anticipated, with AI and data centers emerging as significant drivers. This has created supply constraints, rising retail prices, and regulatory responses that present important risks to public and private sector entities in the power value chain.
- Plugged In and Politicized: Copper in a Fractured World: S&P Global predicts global copper demand to rise about 50% to approximately 42-million metric tons in 2040 from 28,4-million mt in 2025. Materials and minerals critical for electrification, digital infrastructure, and defense have become strategic pillars of economic and national security. Governments are deploying export controls, strategic financing, and allied partnerships to secure access and build resilience.
“The era of viewing the energy transition as a linear path toward decarbonisation has ended,” says Dr Atul Arya, senior vice-president and chief energy strategist at S&P Global Energy.
“In its place stands a more immediate imperative: building energy systems capable of sustaining economic growth in an increasingly uncertain world.
“This shift has far-reaching consequences for how companies invest, how governments regulate, and how markets function.”