The seasonally adjusted PMI increased to 52.6 in April, from 49.0 in March, marking a meaningful rebound at the start of the second quarter.
The improvement was driven by stronger business activity and a sharp recovery in new sales orders, pointing to firmer near-term demand.
However, some of this strength may reflect the front-loading of orders ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery.
Key highlights from the April 2026 PMI include:
- Business activity returns to expansion: The business activity index increased by 6.7 points to 52.8, moving back above the neutral 50-point mark for the first time since late 2025. This suggests that production picked up meaningfully at the start of the second quarter following a weak first quarter.
- New sales orders rebound strongly: New sales orders rose sharply by 8.4 points to 52.9, also returning to expansionary territory. The increase appears to have been driven primarily by stronger domestic demand, while export sales continued to decline. Some respondents noted that orders may have been brought forward in anticipation of further cost increases, which could result in weaker demand in the coming months.
- Inventories increase on precautionary stock-building: The inventories index increased by 3.5 points to 52.3, rising above the 50-point mark for the first time since August 2025. This likely reflects stock-building behaviour as firms purchase inputs ahead of expected price increases. While this supported the headline PMI, it may also indicate temporary factors rather than a sustained improvement in underlying demand.
- Supplier deliveries remain elevated: The supplier deliveries index eased slightly from March but remained elevated at 61.4. As this index is inverted, the high level indicates slower delivery times. Given ongoing global shipping disruptions and local logistical constraints, the signal is more likely to reflect supply-side challenges than stronger demand and should therefore be interpreted with caution.
- Employment remains subdued: The employment index edged up slightly to 43.8, remaining firmly in contractionary territory. Despite stronger activity and orders, firms appear reluctant to increase staffing levels, highlighting ongoing caution about the durability of the recovery.
- Cost pressures intensify further: The purchasing price index rose sharply again to 85.6, building on March’s record increase. The index is now more than 30 points above its level at the start of the year, reflecting higher oil-linked input costs and a weaker exchange rate. Elevated cost pressures are likely to squeeze profit margins and may limit the sustainability of the recent improvement in activity.
- Outlook improves slightly but remains weak: The index tracking expected business conditions improved marginally in April but remains below the neutral 50-point mark. While respondents are slightly less pessimistic than in March, confidence in the outlook remains subdued, particularly given ongoing cost pressures and external uncertainties.
The April PMI results suggest that the manufacturing sector has made a stronger start to the second quarter, with activity and demand rebounding after a weak first quarter. However, the improvement appears to be driven in part by temporary factors such as front-loaded demand and precautionary stock-building.
At the same time, sharply rising input costs and continued weakness in export demand present significant risks to the sustainability of the recovery.